NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 4/28/22: 3 Game 6 Moneylines Our Model Likes

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

Series
- Philadelphia 76ers up 3-2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Toronto Raptors
Spread (+1.5, 2 stars)
- Raptors Moneyline (+104, 2 stars)

numberFire's model is into the Raptors side of this game and likes them to cover as 1.5-point underdogs at home, even with Fred VanVleet doubtful.

Since the All-Star break, the Raptors have a +4.1 net rating in non-garbage situations without VanVleet on the floor in 659 minutes. That'll play.

Also since the break, in games with James Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are 17-9 with a +5.6 net rating when removing low-leverage possessions from the data. It's not that big of a gap.

Using that data, my model has the 76ers favored by 1.3.

In total, numberFire's algorithm gives the Raptors a 61.7% chance to cover, which is tied to an expected return of 17.8%. They're also 58.4% likely to win outright, making their moneyline a two-unit recommendation, as well.

Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans

Series
- Phoenix Suns up 3-2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-138, 3 stars)
- Over 213.5 (3 stars)

The algorithm here at numberFire anticipates a 67.3% chance that the Suns end the New Orleans Pelicans' season tonight, a probability that thwarts their implied moneyline odds (58.0%). That, then, leads to an expected return of 16.1% and a suggested bet of three units.

Their net rating since the break has fallen to +0.4 without Devin Booker in non-garbage possessions over 622 minutes. However, our model and the public still believe in the Suns.

Phoenix is receiving a heavy 76% of spread bets with even a higher rate of the money (80%), via FanDuel Sportsbook. Our model views Suns -2.5 as a two-star play but does prefer the -138 moneyline.

As for the over (213.5), it's 3-2 in the series thus far, and games have gone over by an average of 2.2 points in this series.

Since the break, the Suns have allowed opponents to go over their implied team total at a 62.1% rate by an average of 3.2 points. The Pelicans have gone over their own implied total at the same rate.

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz

Series
- Dallas Mavericks up 3-2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Utah Jazz Moneyline (-102, 5 stars)
- Utah Jazz Spread (+1.0, 4 stars)

Our model usually loves the Jazz, who rank fourth in our power ratings overall. That's the case again tonight.

They're 73.9% likely to win, per numberFire's model. (My personal model has them at 51.4%, for what it's worth.)

But across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our historical database at numberFire, teams representing Utah have a 72.0% win rate and a 72.0% cover rate, so that helps to explain the model's picks.

It's a small sample of 23 games, but since 2016, home playoff underdogs in the 1.0- to 1.5-point range have a 60.9% outright win rate (with an average point differential of +2.5) and a 63.6% cover rate (by an average of 4.0 points).