NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 3/29/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+132)
Our model sees value in a few Philadelphia 76ers made three-pointers props.
Philly is taking on the Milwaukee Bucks, a team that has given up a lot of three-point tries all season. For the year, the Bucks allow a three-point attempt rate of 44.7%, the second-highest. Over the last 15 games, that clip is at 41.6%, the eighth-highest.
The Sixers should be able to get plenty of looks from deep, and that leads me to James Harden's made threes prop. Our model has Harden hitting 2.6 triples on 7.5 attempts, so we have him right at this line. But with the over priced at +132 and the under at -170, the over is where you want to be.
You can also roll the dice on Joel Embiid to make more than 1.5 threes at a price of +116. We project him to hit exactly 1.5 treys, but taking the over makes more sense than swallowing the -148 price on the under.
Seth Curry Over 11.5 Points (-120)
The Brooklyn Nets get a delightful home matchup versus the Detroit Pistons. There should be a lot of points, especially for Brooklyn, as the Nets hold a gaudy 123.75-point implied total.
The Pistons have really struggled with two-guards, permitting 23.2 points per game to the position this season, the third-most. That number sits at 24.0 points over the last 15 games.
Enter Seth Curry, who has scored at least 12 points in four of his past five outings. Of the four games in that time in which Curry went for 12-plus points, three of them were with Kyrie Irving playing.
Our model sees this prop as a good betting opportunity as we project Curry to net 13.8 points.
