NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/29/22: Will the Bulls and Wizards Be Looking at a Lot of Points Again?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards
Over (223.0) - 3 stars
Washington Wizards Spread (+3.5) - 2 stars
Washington Wizards Moneyline (+142) - 2 stars
There are play recommendations across the total, spread, and moneyline in this matchup of at least two stars (i.e. at least two-unit suggestions).
The top play by numberFire's model is the over (223.0), which is rated as a three-star play and as 62.3% likely to occur.
In the first two meetings between these teams, we have seen 239 and 252 points scored while at similar over unders (222.0 and 225.0).
Our algorithm also likes the Wizards to cover as home underdogs with a 60.1% probability and to win with a 48.7% chance -- both great given their respective odds.
With Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma out, we can look to Washington's non-garbage net rating without them since the deadline: it's a -5.7.
The Bulls without Lonzo Ball since the deadline have a net rating of -2.5 when removing low-leverage possessions.
My model, then, views the spread as 2.4 for Chicago, thus pointing me to a cover for Washington, as well.
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets
Over (229.5) - 2 stars
The Brooklyn Nets most recently lost at home (to the Charlotte Hornets by a score of 119-110) while shooting just 20.6% from three.
The Detroit Pistons lost to the New York Knicks 104-102 at home on Sunday.
In three season meetings, the Nets are 3-0 over the Pistons and won by double digits in two of the three.
The preferred angle to this matchup is on the over (229.5). numberFire's model likes this game to go over with a 56.9% probability.
The Nets have surpassed their implied total by an average of 1.9 points over their past 10 games. Over their past 8 games with Kyrie Irving, they have surpassed their implied total 6 times and by an average of 6.7 points. That's elite.
In their past 10 games, the Pistons have gone over their implied total six times by an average of 3.5 points, as well.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz Spread (+1.0) - 3 stars
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-108) - 2 stars
For the 45-30 Jazz to sit as 1.0-point underdogs to the 36-39 Los Angeles Clippers has to mean injury news, right? Yeah, partially.
Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic are questionable, and Paul George is also questionable as he tries to return from his elbow injury.
Without Gobert and Bogdanovic but with Donovan Mitchell active since the deadline, Utah's medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating is -8.5.
Wild, yeah?
Yeah, but while they've allowed a 52.0% shot quality rating (i.e. an estimation of effective field goal percentage allowed), opponents have a 60.8% effective field goal percentage against them in that 191-minute span.
If we open that sample up to the full season (386 minutes), Utah's net rating is 8.1.
Even with Paul George, the Clippers have been a +1.1, so we can embrace some shooting regression and back the Jazz.
