NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 3/24/22: Can Phoenix Cover Against Denver on a Back-to-Back?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
Under (237.5) - 2 stars
Indiana Pacers Spread (+12.5) - 1 star
With just five games, there aren't a ton of elite bets our model is identifying, but we do have a two-star play on the under (237.5) in this matchup between the Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies.
Our model is viewing this game as 61.1% likely to stay under that total and projects a total point output of 232.1. Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, the under is 21-4 (84.0%), a great sign for the under in this spot.
Ja Morant is listed as questionable. Without him and in non-garbage situations, the Grizzlies are still a +9.5 in net rating and have an offensive rating of 114.6.
The Pacers, since the deadline, are at a -1.6 net rating and a 117.1 offensive rating.
Combined, my model has the total at 230.6, as well.
Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans
Over (225.5) - 3 stars
The best bet in this game is by far the over (225.5), per the algorithm. The only other interest is just a one-star play on the Chicago Bulls' spread (+2.0).
This game is rating as 62.3% likely to go over 225.5 points, which leads to an expected return of 19.0%.
numberFire's model expects a tight game with the New Orleans Pelicans winning 116.4-115.2 for a total of 231.6 points.
My adjusted points model expects a total of 228.3, so it's not quite as bold -- but it leans the over, too.
The Pelicans have gone over their implied total in 8 of their past 10 games, and while that number is just 2 of 8 for the Bulls, they're 10th in shot quality rating since the deadline. Things should trend up soon.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
Under (232.0) - 2 stars
Phoenix Suns Spread (+4.0) - 2 stars
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (+148) - 2 stars
There's a slew of two-star plays in this game, and that applies to the Suns' spread and moneyline.
Phoenix is rating as 61.0% likely to cover (for an expected return of 16.5%) and 48.0% likely to win (21.0%).
In each team's past 10 games, the Suns have an adjusted point differential of +8.9, and the Denver Nuggets are at a +5.2.
Denver has a lowly 40.0% home cover rate (NBA average this season is 48.0%), and the Suns have covered in 64.7% of their road games -- second-best in the NBA.
Phoenix is traveling from Minnesota while the Nuggets have had some rest and been at home for a week, and Chris Paul is out. However, without Paul since the break, the Suns are still a +10.2.
Also, across 91 games since 2016 where a road team was a 3.5- to 4.5-point underdog while on a back-to-back and are against a home team with rest, the road team has covered in 56.2% of those games -- by an average of 2.6 points. Teams fitting that criteria this season are 11-1 against the spread.