3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/9/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
LaMelo Ball Under 20.5 Points (-110)
There are so many concerns around the "over" side of LaMelo Ball's props that the league's top defense isn't even the primary concern.
With the Hornets adding Montrezl Harrell, there's been more overall fluctuation in their rotation, and Ball hasn't been immune. Between foul trouble and a slight reduction in normal workload, Ball has played just 22.7 minutes per game in March. That's down from 34.7 in February.
Boston is indeed also the toughest fantasy matchup for any team. Not only do they play at the eighth-slowest pace in the league, but their 101.4 defensive rating in February was over 4.0 points lower than the next closest squad (Miami).
These concerns are both baked into Ball's projection on numberFire that only totals 18.6 points. This "over" might be a popular target on Wednesday because of Ball's recent positive situations and results, but this is far from those in terms of the matchup.
Harrison Barnes Over 5.5 Rebounds (+104)
The slate's highest total is in Sacramento (240.0), and "over" could be a keyword for most players inside of it.
However, at plus money, Harrison Barnes is already outproducing this mark in a vacuum. Since February 1st, he's posted 5.76 rebounds per 36 minutes, and those minutes are getting heavier by the game. Barnes has played at least 37 minutes in three straight.
In addition, the North Carolina alum has turned that into results that matter. He posted five and seven rebounds, respectively, in the Kings' home-and-home series with the Nuggets last month.
Barnes is projected for 6.0 rebounds as a median by numberFire, and that makes backing these odds a fairly simple choice.
Ayo Dosunmu Under 4.5 Assists (+118)
Though still arguably the steal of the 2021 NBA Draft, Ayo Dosunmu's production has tanked with Chicago back at full health.
Backing the under for his fairly-lofty assist total here could be a way to benefit from noticing that trend. With the Bulls' current starting five as-is, Dosunmu has produced just 2.76 assists per 36 minutes in that starting-five floor condition.
His minutes are less guaranteed than they were with Zach LaVine out of the lineup as well. He played just 22 last week after a rough start against Memphis. It's not likely, but it's another arrow pointing in the direction of "under".
Dosunmu is projected for just 4.0 assists at the median by numberFire's model, and that's in a full night's work.
There's no guarantee Dosunmu sees one as the 39-26 Bulls visit the 19-47 Pistons. As usual, there's blowout risk in Detroit even with just a 5.5-point projected spread as of now.