3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/17/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
LaMelo Ball Under 21.5 Points (-116)
Miami is holding the point guard position to 21.4 points per game, the fewest in the NBA. The Heat (29th in pace) are also a massive pace-down spot for the Charlotte Hornets (2nd), while Miami sits 6th in defensive efficiency.
It's just a brutal spot overall for Ball.
Ball is on a great run, scoring at least 22 points in four straight games, but all four of those contests were against teams ranked in the top half of the league in pace.
Our projections have Ball posting 20.0 points in this one.
Brandon Ingram Under 21.5 Points (-112)
Dallas has been one of the league's better defensive teams, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency. And they've really limited small forwards, keeping the position to 20.4 points per game, the sixth-fewest.
The Mavs are also playing at the league's slowest pace.
On top of all that, Ingram has seen his usage drop with the arrival of C.J. McCollum. In four games since McCollum joined the Pels, BI owns a 25.5% usage rate, compared to his season-long mark of 29.2%, and Ingram has gotten 12 or fewer shots in two of those games.
We forecast Ingram to score 20.2 points tonight.
Joel Embiid Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+118)
Joel Embiid has hit multiple threes in four of his last six games, and one of the two exceptions in that span came in a drubbing at the hands of the Boston Celtics in which Embiid played only 26 minutes, his fewest minutes since opening night.
The only game in the past four in which he didn't jack up at least five three-point tries was that same Boston contest.
Embiid should get back to his usual workload tonight in a matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks, and it's a great one for Embiid's outlook from downtown.
Milwaukee is allowing a three-point attempt rate of 44.5%, the second-highest, and I like backing Embiid to make at least two three-pointers.