NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/17/22: A Look at All 5 Games Before the All-Star Break
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
So far, the Miami Heat have had the edge in each of the two prior matchups with the Charlotte Hornets. A large edge.
They have won by 15 and by 18 in the first two meetings, respectively.
The first matchup came back on October 29th when each side was off to a strong start. The second matchup came on February 5th after the records separated a bit.
The model at numberFire is predicting that the Hornets keep it closer than either of the first two games with Jimmy Butler questionable and recommends a one-unit lean on the Hornets to cover (+5.0). They are 56.3% likely to cover, good for a 7.5% expected return.
That's our algorithm's top play in this one.
Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets
With a home game, the Brooklyn Nets will be without Kyrie Irving in addition to Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons.
The Washington Wizards, though, are without Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. Woof.
Our algorithm's favorite play here is the Nets' moneyline (-174), and it sees the Nets getting the win at a 71.0% rate, easily besting their implied moneyline odds of 63.5%.
It's also a fan of the over (217.5) despite the lack of starpower.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans
Tonight's matchup between these two marks the fourth and final meeting and features numberFire's top play of the night (the Dallas Mavericks moneyline).
Though the Mavericks hold a 2-1 series lead, the New Orleans Pelicans won the most recent game (recent as in December 3rd, mind you) by a score of 107-91.
Our algorithm's staying away from the over/under on this matchup and loves the Mavericks' moneyline (-154), given that they have a 69.4% outright win probability.
My model, with recency and injury adjustments, sees it a lot closer (Dallas with a 54.5% win rate and a spread of -3.0).
Notably, the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database result in a 68.0% win rate and a 56.0% cover rate for teams representing the Mavericks. Makes sense that the model loves Dallas here.
Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks
This one is shaping up to be a stay-away in a lot of ways.
The only value our model is finding on it is a one-star lean on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover the 6.5-point spread and on the over (223.5).
Philly will be without James Harden; the Milwaukee Bucks are a little thin on rotation players.
Both teams have actually been pretty good in similar splits to what they'll have tonight, and my model is liking the 76ers to cover -- with a lean at best.
Look elsewhere tonight.
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers
Ah, a nice 10.5-point spread with a -560 home favorite to lead us into the All-Star break. February basketball at its finest.
That's what we get tonight when the Los Angeles Clippers host the Houston Rockets in their first meeting of the season (and will play twice more by March 1st).
numberFire's algo gives the Clippers an 84.8% win chance, higher than my model's 77.2%. Either way, there's enough to err slightly with the spread (Clippers -10.5).
Since 2016, home teams favored by 10 to 11.5 have an 83.0% win rate and have covered by an average of 0.92 points.
