NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/31/22: Taking the Points With 3 Underdogs
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks
The theme for the night is going to be underdogs. Not because I'm trying to have a theme but because that's where some of the best value is emerging.
We have better games than this on that front, but the data does point to the Toronto Raptors (+2.0) to cover.
numberFire's model gives Toronto a 53.4% chance to cover, leading to a lean on the 'dog here.
The Raptors are a +2.0 on the road when adjusting for spread expectations; the Atlanta Hawks are a -1.8 at home.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Although the Golden State Warriors have a stellar 37-13 record this season, they are just 13-9 in road games. Their point differential falls from +13.1 at home (where they are 24-4) to +1.9.
Adjusting for spread, the Warriors are a +4.3; on the road, they are at a +1.0.
This isn't going toward assuming the Houston Rockets will win (numberFire's model puts their odds at just 19.6% to win, which actually does put slight value on their moneyline of +440) but is mostly about the spread.
Houston is an 11.0-point underdog. Since 2016, home teams with a spread of +11.0 or larger have covered at a 53.7% rate and by an average of 2.1 points.
Those teams' win rate (18.7%) is similar to how numberFire's model views it (again, 19.6%).
My model actually sees the spread as 9.0, as well, so taking the points with the Rockets makes sense here.
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
However, accounting for such a narrow gap and home-court advantage, my model sees the Thunder as 0.5-point home favorites, so I like the spread (Thunder +4.0) and moneyline (Thunder +146).
numberFire's model rates each of those as three-star plays as well.