3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 1/31/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Anfernee Simons Over 3.5 Three-Point Makes (+112)

It's rare you see a prop bet that comes from an obvious process available at such hefty plus-money odds.

Anfernee Simons is still in a full-time role as the Blazers operate without Damian Lillard. He's still splashing threes, too. Simons has posted at least four makes from downtown in each of his last seven games, and he's reached that mark in 12 of 15 total January contests -- many of those with C.J. McCollum healthy as he is now.

Yet, Simons is only projected for 3.5 at plus-money odds by FanDuel Sportsbook tonight. It feels like a little bit of a trap to be so easy to find, but the Thunder are terrible at defending threes as well. They allow the fourth-most attempts per game (38.4) in the league.

Some of this line might be the perception McCollum is back to snatch up Simons' shot volume. Still, Simons has maintained the team's high-water mark in usage rate (26.5%) for the month. He's tried at least seven threes in all but one contest in January.

Maybe this line is too good to be true, but Simons is averaging 4.01 three-point makes per 36 minutes with Lillard off the floor this season. That deserves way better than a 47.2% implied probability to surpass 3.5 in a great matchup.

Caris LeVert Over 4.5 Rebounds (-106)

Outlier matchups are great for prop bets, and Caris LeVert's Pacers have one tonight.

The Clippers are terrible on the glass. They are last in the league in estimated defensive rebounding percentage (74.2%) by half a percentage point. While Domantas Sabonis has a lofty, 12.5-board prop to reach with minus-money odds, his co-star, LeVert, is an interesting target.

LeVert has shot just 27.7% from the field in the last three games, so to say he's struggling would be an understatement. However, he's posted at least five rebounds in six of his nine January contests. I guess you chip in wherever you can when the ball isn't going in the basket.

Averaging 5.22 rebounds per 36 minutes during floor situations without Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner (out Monday), he's well-positioned for this prop should he see his full minutes. Indiana sits as a 2.5-point home favorite, so his full minutes are reasonable to project.

Like Simons, a 48.5% implied probability behind these odds seems simply too low given LeVert's historical pace on the glass and his matchup. We'll take it to start the week off strong.

Tyrese Haliburton Under 7.5 Assists (+108)

The Knicks are a factory of fantasy basketball sadness, so "under" props are always in play at MSG.

New York combines the second-slowest pace in the league with a 106.6 estimated defensive rating (10th-best in the NBA), so they're a team generally not to be trifled with. Tonight, Tyrese Haliburton will attempt to do so.

Haliburton could have a reduced role if De'Aaron Fox suits up for the first time in three games. Fox's listing as questionable into Thursday afternoon certainly provides some hope, and naturally, Fox returning to a 28.1% usage rate would certainly damp most of the Sacramento props on the board.

Even if he doesn't suit up, the Kings have had a -72 point differential in three straight losses without Fox. They have a -4.2 net rating without Fox for the entire season. It's been tough for them to even keep pace with opponents without their best player.

It might be worth it to wait until we get news on Fox to wager; Haliburton averages 8.87 assists per 36 minutes without him on the floor. Still, with quite a few paths to failure for Haliburton to dish eight or more assists, I can get behind 48.1% implied odds that one of them happens with or without "Swipa".