NBA Betting Guide for Friday 1/28/22: The Spurs Are Better at Home Than Their Record Suggests
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic
Though there are 11 games on the docket, there aren't as many slam dunk (get it?) betting opportunities as we might think -- at least according to numberFire's model.
One game it does have a lean on is this matchup between the 11-36 Detroit Pistons and the 9-40 Orlando Magic.
The lean is on the Pistons (+3.0) to cover, which is 56.0% likely to occur, leading to a nice return on investment of 6.9%.
The Pistons are 4-6 in their past 10 games with a point differential of -7.7, but if you adjust for spread, they're a +2.2. They've outperformed expectations recently.
The Magic are 2-8 with a -4.6 point differential (and a spread-adjusted mark of +1.2). They've both been decent in their own ways, and the Magic have covered in just 23.8% of home games, an NBA worst.
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are setting up as 1.0-point home underdogs to the Chicago Bulls tonight in a game with an over/under of 230.0 points.
The algorithm here actually likes the Spurs to pick up the win 57.4% of the time; that makes their -104 moneyline a two-star recommendation. The Spurs +1.0 is a one-star lean, as well.
The median projected score in this matchup comes out to 118.7 to 116.7 in favor of the Spurs.
San Antonio's home record is quite poor (9-16), but their point differential at home is actually slightly positive: +0.4. That normally would suggest a win rate of just a tick above 50.0% (naturally).
The Bulls are without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. In high-leverage situations, their net rating without those two is actually a +0.4; however, that comes on an effective field goal percentage of 57.2% despite a shot quality rating (i.e. expected effective field goal percentage) of 51.0%.
New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
The nightcap is not in Phoenix but rather in Milwaukee, and it's one of the games that numberFire's model likes -- but mine likes even more.
Though our model at numberFire gives the Milwaukee Bucks a 76.6% chance to win, that's not enough to back their moneyline (-375). Instead, it likes the New York Knicks' moneyline (+330) as a one-star play.
It's also in on the Knicks (+8.5) to cover, which they're expected to do with a 52.8% probability.
My model -- adjusting for injuries and recent play -- thinks the spread should be 6.4 points in Milwaukee's favor. That also leads to a win probability of 34.3% for the Knicks.
