3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 1/21/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Fred VanVleet Under 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
Fred VanVleet is facing a Washington Wizards that doesn't give up many three-point tries. The Wiz allow a three-point attempt rate of just 34.9%, the lowest in the league.
VanVleet is taking a ton of triples, hoisting up at least 10 three-point attempts in 12 of his last 13 games. But he'll have a harder time getting looks from deep tonight, and he's already been held to three made trifectas or fewer twice across his last three outings.
Our model projects VanVleet to hit 3.1 three-pointers on 8.3 tries against Washington. With the under priced at +114, this is a great prop to hone in on.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 Made Three-Pointers (+186)
Similar to the first writeup, Giannis Antetokounmpo has a difficult matchup for made three-pointers.
Giannis and the Milwaukee Bucks are squaring off with the Chicago Bulls. For the season, Chicago is surrendering a three-point attempt rate of 36.4%, the third-lowest.
Antetokounmpo has hit at least one three-pointer in three straight games, but he's due for negative regression with his three-point percentage. In that three-game span, he's gone 4 for 10 from deep, and he's making only 28.8% of his three-balls for the season while attempting just 3.8 per game.
Up against a Bulls team that does a good job preventing three-point attempts and due for some regression, Giannis could post a donut from beyond the arc. There's also major blowout risk in this game with the Bucks an 11.0-point favorite.
Admittedly, our projections have Giannis making 1.2 threes today. But given the prices on the under (+186) and over (-245), I like rolling the dice on the under.
Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points (-104)
Jimmy Butler gets a mouth-watering matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.
Not only do the Hawks rank next to last in defensive efficiency, they are also allowing 23.7 points per game to shooting guards, the most in the league.
On top of that, Miami will be without Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry. With those two off the floor this season, Butler owns a 25.5% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. That's a nice bump on the overall 22.5% usage rate Butler carries across the last five games.
Butler poured in 23 points against Atlanta back on January 14th, and our algorithm pegs him to score 22.0 tonight.