NBA Betting Guide for Friday 1/14/22: Backing 3 Home Teams Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
Though the 9-31 Detroit Pistons aren't projected to pick up a 10th win (numberFire's model gives them a 26.5% chance to do so), there's a lean on them to cover (+8.5) at home.
Our model projects a point differential of just 6.7 points tonight between these two sides.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Pistons won at just a 32.0% rate but covered at a 64.0% rate. Our actual model's pick is a little lighter (Detroit is 56.1% to cover, good for a 7.0% return) for what it's worth.
Detroit is 4-6 in their past 10 with a spread-adjusted point differential of -2.6. The Toronto Raptors are 7-3 with a spread-adjusted point differential of +1.2. It's a bit closer than the records suggest.
numberFire's model also suggests a one-unit lean on the Pistons' moneyline (+295).
Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers
We're getting more one-star plays on a home underdog in this game, too.
Our model likes the Indiana Pacers (+5.5) and their moneyline (+164) as one-star suggestions.
The Phoenix Suns were cooling off a bit before getting back on track in their most recent games. Overall, they're 6-4 in their past 10 with a nice point differential of +5.0; however, adjusted for spread, they're a -3.1 in that span, suggesting they've underperformed relative to expectations.
The Pacers' adjusted point differential is -1.3, and their raw number is -3.8 during their past 10 (with an ugly 2-8 record).
Using each side's recent data, my model anticipated a spread of 3.0, so it also leans toward the Pacers to cover tonight at home.
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
None of the 11 prior opponents have been able to stop the Memphis Grizzlies, and signs point to Memphis earning yet another win tonight.
Our model here gives Memphis a 66.8% chance to pick up a 12th straight win, thus putting their moneyline (-134, meaning implied odds of 57.3%) into three-star territory.
They're also getting a one-star nod to cover (-2.5).
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Grizzlies beat teams representing the Dallas Mavericks in 18 of them (72.0%) and covered in 17 of them (68.0%).
My model -- adjusting for recent data -- views the spread as -4.0 for the Grizzlies and sees them 62.5% likely to win (suggesting moneyline odds of -166).
