NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/30/21: Take the Points Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets
Overall, we've got a five-game slate to sift through, and with a few efficient lines, we're really strapped for immense betting value. Keep that in mind.
That said, our model has a lean on the New York Knicks (+6.5) to cover against the Brooklyn Nets in Brooklyn. That's a one-star recommendation, per our model, meaning a one-unit wager is appropriate.
In total, numberFire's model views the Knicks as 53.6% likely to cover the spread, so again, it's tight, and it's a narrow lean if anything.
The reasons we can like this are that the Knicks have a top-tier shot quality rating this season if we exclude garbage time. The Nets are down at the league average.
The Knicks are 6-3 in road games with a spread-adjusted point differential of +3.6, ranking fifth-best in the NBA. The Nets are just 6-4 at home with a spread-adjusted point differential of -5.2, a bottom-six rate in the league.
In total, my model sees the spread as 5.5 for the Nets. So again, it's a tight one, but it's one of the three best games to bet on the night.
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
The Los Angeles Lakers are still just 11-11 but have had LeBron James back for three straight games (during which they are 2-1). He is listed as questionable tonight but should play. Anthony Davis is listed as probable.
In games with both playing, however, the Lakers are only 5-7 with a net rating of -6.8 in non-garbage situations. So, not all is well in L.A.
The Sacramento Kings have some worse injury news with Harrison Barnes doubtful and Maurice Harkless questionable, and I don't want to bury that lede or anything.
Still, accounting for all of the injuries in this game, my model is siding with the Kings outright (barely) at 54.3%. numberFire's model sees the Kings winning this game at a 47.6%
With the models seeing this game really close, it makes sense that the recommendations are on the Kings' side.
They're getting 4.0 points at home, and numberFire's model rates that as a two-star play. Their moneyline (+142) is also a two-star recommendation.
Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers
Here's a third straight underdog recommendation.
Though the Detroit Pistons (+9.0) are on the road, they are also entering with a day of rest after a 110-106 loss to the Lakers on Sunday. That's their sixth straight loss. They're also just 2-8 over their past 10 games with a point differential of -8.0 per game.
There are some positive notes though. Detroit's spread-adjusted point differential is a 0.0 over their last 10, so they have played to expectation in this sample (they've faced a lot of good teams recently, and this adjusts for that). They're also 5-4-1 against the spread in this span while having gone over their own implied team total in 8 of 10 games. They're playing well within their own context.
The Portland Trail Blazers are on a back-to-back after a 129-107 loss to the Utah Jazz on the road to cap a three-game road trip (which saw them lose to the Kings [125-121], to the Golden State Warriors [118-103], and then to the Jazz).
The Blazers have been great at home overall (9-1 with a +12.0 point differential and a +8.7 spread-adjusted point differential). However, the Pistons have shown up on the road in terms of offense: they have gone over their implied total in 7 of 10 road games thus far.
numberFire's model sees the Pistons +9.0 as a two-star recommendation.
