3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/29/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Lauri Markkanen Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Dallas ranks 22nd in estimated rebounding rate, and they are 26th in rebounds per game allowed to opposing frontcourt players. Those both bode well for Markkanen.
Markkanen outright has averaged 6.5 rebounds per game and is projected for 6.6 tonight across 32.7 minutes, via our model at numberFire.
Markkanen actually has some rebounding regression expected, too. He has hauled in only 52.6% of his rebounding chances (the NBA average is 57.2%). If he gathered boards at a league-average rate, he'd be averaging 0.22 rebounds per minute -- in line with his four-year average of 0.23.
A lot points to the over here, and my prop simulator views Markkanen's odds as 63.6% likely to get to 6-plus rebounds in this spot.
Joel Embiid Over 10.5 Rebounds (-106)
Joel Embiid is also set for an over on his rebounding prop tonight.
The Philadelphia 76ers' center is projected for 11.2 rebounds tonight across 33.1 minutes. That works out to a per-minute rate of 0.34 rebounds. His four-year average is actually even higher at 0.38.
That means, at a reasonable minutes load and with a drop to his per-minute rate, he's still projected to go over.
Should we scale back his rebounding rate in the first place? Probably not.
The Orlando Magic allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing frontcourt players, and they are 26th in estimated rebounding rate.
Embiid's rebounding chances per game (17.0) in a plus matchup are leading to an over recommendation. Embiid, at a baseline projection of 11.2 rebounds, should be viewed as 57.5% likely to go over this prop tonight.
Dejounte Murray Under 19.5 Points (-110)
The points prop for Dejounte Murray is very close to his full-season, per-game output of 18.9 points. Yes, that's a tick below the prop, and yes, that's the side I'm leaning on tonight.
Murray faces a viable Washington Wizards defense, which ranks 12th in estimated defensive rating and is allowing just 41.5 points per game to opposing backcourt players (a top-five rate in the NBA).
Murray also is struggling from the free-throw line (67.4%, down from a career rate of 77.7%). While that means regression should be coming, it's never good to see poor free-throw shooting with a dip in overall efficiency.
In total, Murray's effective field goal percentage (48.1%) is on par with his career rate (48.7%), yet this does mean the efficiency is a tick down.
Even at his career rates (again, better than what he has put forth this season) and his projected shot volume for tonight's game, he should be projected for 18.1 points. numberFire's actual projection for him is 18.1, as well.
Murray, then, is being viewed as 60.0% likely to fall short of 20 points, per my prop simulator.