NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/11/21: Will the Knicks Keep It Close?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons

The under (228.0) is getting a majority of bet slips (62%) and money (57%) on this game, according to oddsFire.

Our algorithm is leaning that way, too, rating the under as a one-star recommendation out of five. The model sees the under as 56.2% likely to occur, good for a slight return of 7.3%.

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons comprise the only game of the night with absolutely zero playoff implications.

The Pistons are resting virtually everyone, a situation that has more or less been the case for the past seven games. In that small-but-relevant sample, the Pistons have a net rating of -7.0 from a 106.3 offensive rating and a 113.3 defensive rating while playing at an under-friendly pace (96.7 possessions per 48 minutes).

Over the past month, the Pistons have gone over in just 29.4% of their games (5 of 17).

Using recent data for these teams, my model anticipated an over/under of 223.0 and sees the under as 64.6% likely.

Los Angeles Clippers at Toronto Raptors

There's agreement between our model and the betting public on the over (217.5) in this game.

oddsFire shows 70% of the tickets and 74% of the money on the over, and our model views the over as a two-star recommendation and 57.7% likely to hit.

Sure, the Toronto Raptors are without Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam, but in two games without them, they are 2-0 with a net rating of 13.3 and an offensive rating of 121.7.

Based on that, there are some reasons to believe in their offense a little bit, especially with the Los Angeles Clippers trending back toward the NBA average in defensive rating over the past 15 games (111.1).

My model -- using recent data -- expected an over/under of 226.5 here.

New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers

The messy rest situations have made a lot of spreads and outrights tricky to pin down from a data standpoint, so that's why I've looked mostly at totals recently.

Here, though, we at least have a spread we can probably lean on, and that's the New York Knicks +5.5.

Our algorithm rates that bet as a one-star wager and as 54.9% likely to hit. There's a tight split between the spread betting with the Knicks getting 51% of the tickets and 55% of the money.

LeBron James is expected to return, and in games with he, Anthony Davis, and Andre Drummond, the Los Angeles Lakers are actually just 0-2 with a -5.0 net rating.

The Knicks are top-six in net rating (6.7) over the past 15 games and should be able to keep it close as they aim to stick in the 4 seed in the East.

New York beat Los Angeles last month (111-96), but that game came without James and Davis.