3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/2/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Pascal Siakam Under 22.5 Points (-104)
Pascal Siakam is taking on a Golden State Warriors team that has been pretty solid defensively this campaign, sitting ninth in defensive efficiency. They're a middle-of-the-road defense against power forwards, permitting 21.5 points per game to the position.
Siakam has been all over the map lately with his scoring, putting up point totals of 14, 14, 26, 26, 27, 21 and 9 across his last seven. So he's been under 22.5 points four times in that stretch. He's averaging 20.0 points for the season and averaged 19.7 per night in March.
Our model has Siakam coming in on the lower-end of his recent outcomes tonight, pegging him for 20.6 points.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-102)
The Indiana Pacers are taking on a Charlotte Hornets team that surrenders the second-highest three-point attempt rate (45.7%). As such, the made three-pointers lines for Caris LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon and Justin Holiday have been increased to at least 2.5 made triples. Myles Turner's is still at 1.5.
Turner is jacking up a lot of threes lately, taking 18 across his past three games. He's made multiple treys in each of those outings, hitting eight in that time. In all he's canned at least two three-pointers in five of his last six games. Centers are averaging 1.2 three-point makes per game on 3.3 tries versus Charlotte.
We have Turner projected for 1.4 trifectas tonight, and with the over at -102 -- compared to -125 for the under -- I like siding with him to make more than 1.5 threes.
Jonas Valanciunas Over 17.5 Points (-116)
No team allows more points per game to centers this season than the Minnesota Timberwolves do. The T-Wolves give up 24.5 points per game to fives and sit 27th in overall defensive efficiency. Plus, there should be ample possessions in this game as both the Memphis Grizzlies (sixth) and Timberwolves (second) sit in the top six in pace.
As for Jonas Valanciunas, he's been pretty quiet offensively of late, going for 18-plus points just once in his last six games. But that one time was a 30-point explosion two games ago against a Houston Rockets D that has struggled versus centers. JV went for 24 points against Minnesota in their lone previous meeting this season.
Our algorithm projects Valanciunas to net 17.7 points tonight.
