NBA Betting Guide for 2/16/21: 3 Spreads Our Algorithm Likes Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
We've got some high-profile games tonight, which is always fun from a viewing standpoint, but there's also some betting value in them, which is -- frankly -- better.
numberFire's algorithm views the Milwaukee Bucks as the 2nd-best team in the NBA and the Toronto Raptors as the 10th-best team in the league. But it's a pretty big gap. The Bucks have a nERD of 72.1, meaning we expect them to have a winning percentage of 72.1%. That implies a point differential of +6.6. The Raptors' 53.1 nERD is tied to an estimated point differential of just +0.9.
My ELO-based adjusted point differentials pit the Bucks as a +7.8 and the Raptors as a +0.9, so the gap grows.
numberFire's algorithm sees the Bucks as 78.3% likely to win this game outright, but their moneyline of -240 suggests their win odds are only 70.6%. Our algorithm, then, rates that as a three-star recommendation out of five. oddsFire shows 80% of the bets but actually even more -- 88% -- of the money on the Bucks to win outright.
The spread (Bucks -5.5) is in play, too. There have been 77% of the bets and 84% of the money on the Bucks to cover. numberFire's algorithm views it as 59.5% likely to occur. It's a two-star recommendation.
New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies
I won't say the betting public is split on this game, but the spread is 55/45 in favor of the New Orleans Pelicans (-0.5), and the moneyline is about 60/40 in favor of the Pelicans, as well. But numberFire's preference is the Memphis Grizzlies.
Our algorithm suggests that Memphis' moneyline (-112) is a four-star recommendation. We give them a 67.6% chance to win outright, so it's not that close to a coinflip. This is despite the fact that the Pelicans are 14th in our power rankings and the Grizzlies are 18th. They're both right around the NBA average in expected point differential.
Based on adjusted point differentials, though, I have the Grizzlies at +0.4 and the Pels at -0.7, a gap of 1.1 points. Homecourt advantage hasn't been massive this year, but home teams have won by an average of 0.9 points.
A two-thirds chance to win seems high, but there are still reasons to back the home side here, and they rate out as -- understandably -- 66.3% likely to cover that spread, via numberFire's algorithm.
Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns
There is some smart money indicators in this game even if the majority of the bets and money are on the Brooklyn Nets. Only 41% of the bets are on the Phoenix Suns to cover at -5.5, but 54% of the money is on that side. Further, 32% of the moneyline bets are on Phoenix, but 41% of the money is there.
Now, numberFire's algorithm is super high on the Suns and views their moneyline (-220) as a three-star wager. This is another spot where I wouldn't be quite so high as numberFire's model, but the Suns' adjusted point differential this season is +3.6, and the Nets are at +3.1.
The Nets, of course, will be without Kevin Durant. In five games without Durant but with James Harden and Kyrie Irving, the Nets are 3-2 with an offensive rating of 124.2 and a defensive rating of 120.9 for a net of 3.3, so they're no pushover -- but it's a small sample of success.
The Suns are preferred at their moneyline, but Phoenix -5.0 is coming out 55.6% likely, per our algorithm. That suggests a return of 6.1%.
