FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 2/4/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's five-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Studs to Consider: With Victor Oladipo out, John Wall ($7,500) could be looking at some very fantasy-friendly usage against a Memphis Grizzlies team that ranks 21st against point guards, according to numberFire's DvP tool. In 121.5 minutes with 'Dipo and James Harden off the court this season, Wall has a 31.3% usage rate while averaging 1.35 FanDuel points per minute, per RotoGrinders. In his lone games sans Harden (before the trade), Wall recorded 51.8 FanDuel points in 37.2 minutes of action. Those kinds of minutes are unlikely to happen again, but Wall did manage 38.7 fantasy points in 21.7 minutes three days ago -- he's plenty capable of producing in short stints.

Ben Simmons ($8,700) has eclipsed 50 fantasy points three times in his last six games, and tonight he faces a Portland Trail Blazers team that's ceding the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Simmons definitely has the potential for another 50-pointer in a game where the Philadelphia 76ers have the highest implied total on the slate.

We also have Luka Doncic ($11,300) and Damian Lillard ($9,600) on this slate, so we need to talk about them. Over the last two seasons, Luka has played on both ends of a back-to-back 11 times, and he's posted an average of just 43.4 FanDuel points in the second leg -- in fact, he's recorded 45.1 or fewer in 8 of those 11 contests. Now, Doncic does have incredible upside, but if you're going to dish out $11,300 for a player, you better feel damn comfortable about his situation. Of course, Luka's outlook would improve a bit if Kristaps Porzingis were to rest for tonight's matchup with the Golden State Warriors. As for Lillard, he's dealing with an abdominal strain, so that alone is reason for hesitency. That said, if he does suit up and there are no reports of any limitations, he is one of the top studs to target on this slate.
(Update: Lillard is OUT tonight.)

Value Options: Our model's top-projected value at point is Monte Morris ($3,900). With Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier out, Morris should see a bump in volume. He only needs 19.5 FanDuel points to reach our baseline value, and he's topped 20 on 14 different occasions this season. With Grayson Allen still out, De'Anthony Melton ($5,200) remains in play. Melton has put up 35.0, 39.9, and 26.4 FanDuel points in the three games Allen has missed.

Honorable Mentions: If Lillard can't go tonight, we'll look to Anfernee Simons ($4,400) for value. Ja Morant ($7,400) has underwhelmed in four of his five games back, but he is facing a Houston Rockets defense that ranks 22nd against point guards. Morant is our model's second-best projected value at the position. Eric Gordon ($5,400) is listed as a point guard and he could be a solid value option with Oladipo inactive.

Shooting Guard

Core Value Plays: Two of our model's top-four projected values at shooting guard are Kevin Huerter ($4,500) and Josh Richardson ($4,900). Huerter is seeing an increased role with De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic out, and that manifested in a 46-FanDuel-point performance last night. It was the second time in three games that Hunter has missed in which Huerter had recorded at least 34 fantasy points -- he has also played at least 38.5 minutes in each of those three games. Meanwhile, Richardson has seen at least 35.3 minutes of action in three straight, and he's managed 40.0 and 34.2 FanDuel points in his last two. For the record, that 40-pointer came against a Phoenix Suns that's sixth-stingiest against shooting guards in 2020-21.

Other Values to Target: numberFire's top-projected value at shooting guard is Seth Curry ($3,800), who will face a Portland team that's worst in the league at defending the position. Dillon Brooks ($5,200) is fresh off posting 40.1 fantasy points on Tuesday -- he's our model's third-best projected value at the position.

Stud to Consider: numberFire's algorithm projects Donovan Mitchell ($7,800) to amass 37.5 FanDuel points tonight, 7.8 more than any other shooting guard on the slate. Mitchell has recorded at least 41.4 in three of his last five games, and he's managed at least 37.1 in six of his last eight. The matchup with the Atlanta Hawks is certainly not one to shy away from.

Mid-Range Option: Gary Trent Jr. ($6,300) has racked up 37.2 and 39.1 fantasy points in two of his last three. He's worth some exposure, at the very least.
(Update: Trent Jr. is not a core value play with Lillard and Derrick Jones Jr. out tonight.)

Small Forward

Key Stud: Including the postseason, LeBron James ($10,700) has matched up with the Denver Nuggets 11 times as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. In those 11 games, he's posted an average of 52.2 FanDuel points, including four outputs of 64-plus. King James has recorded at least 46.4 fantasy points in five of his last seven. Passing on LeBron tonight could prove to be highly risky, as our model projects him to outscore every other small forward by 16.1 FanDuel points. In fact, the gap between LeBron and our model's third-highest projected scorer at the position is 22.7. Sheesh.

Mid-Range and Value Options: Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,900) is numberFire's top-projected value at shooting guard, as we have him returning a value figure north of 6.0. Next, we have Carmelo Anthony ($4,600), who has eclipsed 25 FanDuel points in five of the seven games since C.J. McCollum went down. Melo will face a Sixers defense that ranks 25th against small forwards this season. With Kevon Looney leaving in the first half on Tuesday and James Wiseman already out, Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,900) managed 25.9 FanDuel points. The $1,400 salary hike is less than ideal, but JTA could be a decent under-the-radar option.

Aside from Finney-Smith and Melo, numberFire's algorithm has two more small forwards returning value figures better than 5.0 -- Kelly Oubre ($5,300) and Will Barton ($5,200). Oubre has had duds in two of his last three games, but he has also accrued at least 28 fantasy points in 7 of his last 11 outings. Meanwhile, Barton dropped 33.6 FanDuel points on Sunday with Gary Harris injured and P.J. Dozier out.

Power Forward

Key Studs: Should he play tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back, Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500) will have an excellent matchup against a Golden State team that's banged-up on the interior. The Warriors were already allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to power forwards, but now they'll be without two regulars in Looney and Wiseman. Porzingis has racked up more than 40 FanDuel points in five of his last eight efforts.

Our model isn't too high on Anthony Davis ($10,300) in terms of value return, but I actually don't mind targeting AD tonight. In nine matchups with Denver last season (including the playoffs), Davis exceeded 50 FanDuel points six times, including at least 52 in five of those outings. Davis has garnered 50-plus in four of his last seven and dating back to last season, he's averaging 50.9 FanDuel points in games following a sub-40 fantasy-point performance -- that includes only one outing with fewer than 49.1. He put up just 37.4 on Monday.

Christian Wood ($8,900) averages an impressive 1.51 FanDuel points per minute without Harden and Oladipo on the court this season. Our model projects Wood to be the highest-scoring power forward and the third-best value. You can easily roster two of the aforementioned three tonight -- my preference would be Porzingis and AD if you do want to go down that route.

Mid-Range and Value Options: Aside from Porzingis and Wood, the only two other power forwards that our model has returning value figures better than 4.9 are Draymond Green ($5,800) and Maxi Kleber ($4,100). Green should see more minutes with Looney and Wiseman out. He saw a season-high 36.5 minutes with those two either hurt or out on Tuesday. As for Kleber, it didn't take long for him to get back into the swing of things after missing 11 games on the COVID list. Maxi played 32.3 minutes last night and put up 24.5 FanDuel points in the process.

Center

Key Studs: As long as he doesn't rest tonight, Joel Embiid ($10,200) will have the distinct honor of being guarded by Enes Kanter ($7,000 -- more on him later). Kanter isn't exactly known for his defensive abilities, and Embiid has dropped 53.7 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight -- so that could be a dangerous combination. Two of those performances with 53.7-plus came on the second leg of a back-to-back, so if he's active, it's not something we have to lose sleep over.
(Update: With Lillard out, Embiid becomes a riskier play due to the increased potential for a blowout.)

Nikola Jokic ($11,000) gets a far tougher draw in the Lakers. In nine matchups against AD and company last season, Jokic totaled fewer than 44 FanDuel points seven times. Despite that, we simply can't ignore Jokic's form this season. The Serbian has trumped 55 fantasy points 12 times this season, and that includes 10 outings with more than 60.

Mid-Range and Value Options: The Rockets have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to centers this season, so Gorgui Dieng ($5,300) is firmly in play after dudding on Tuesday. Our model projects Dieng to be the best value at the position. Eric Paschall ($4,500) has a 29.7% usage rate without Looney, Wiseman, and Marquese Chriss on the court this season, which is the highest on the team. That high usage comes along with a per-minute average of 0.98 fantasy points. Paschall only eeked out 4.0 FanDuel points in a similar situation on Tuesday, so don't over-expose. Finally, Enes Kanter ($7,000) has posted at least 34.7 fantasy points in five of his eight games without Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. The matchup is brutal -- the Sixers rank second against centers -- but the volume should be there.