3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/1/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Monday's slate has a massive 10 games, so it won't be too difficult to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Jrue Holiday ($7,500) - We are getting to the point where literally every point guard who matches up against Damian Lillard needs to be considered in our player pool. Yes, even guards like Holiday who share the court with massive usage players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. The matchup for point guards against the Portland Trail Blazers has become so attractive, teams are beginning to funnel offensive production through the position.

In seven of Portland's last eight games, opposing point guards have scored more than 20 points, as their team defensive rating has plummeted to 28th in the league.

Lillard's individual defensive rating of 114.1 ranks 78th among all guards with at least 25 minutes per game this season, and he has allowed opposing point guards to score 29.9 points per game -- more than 1.3 points worse than the next team. Considering Lillard is third in the league in minutes played, if Holiday can play his typical 34-37 minutes, we could be looking at an easy 6x of his salary tonight.

Forward

Kyle Anderson ($5,800) - It looks like a lot of lineups tonight will roster one of Will Barton or Michael Porter Jr. with Gary Harris likely to miss tonight's game. Considering Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray take up so much of the usage from that game, I see this as an easy spot to pivot to a player like Anderson, who is just a $200 higher salary than Porter and has a sneaky good matchup against the San Antonio Spurs.

In case you hadn't noticed, these are not your grandfather's Spurs and Grizzlies teams. Gone are the days of Rise and Grind and coach Popovich's methodical, wear-you-out half-court offense. Both of these teams rank top 13 in pace this year, and the Spurs have especially struggled with opposing forwards. In fact, the Spurs are top five in the most points, rebounds, assists, and blocks allowed to the small forward spot -- adding up to them being the worst team in the league against the position.

With Jonas Valanciunas out again tonight, Anderson should continue to see more opportunities for scoring and on the boards. Anderson has scored at least 10 points in 7 of 10 games and has a streak of seven games with at least four rebounds. Throw in his typical three to four steals/blocks tonight and there is an easy path to 30 FanDuel points -- a number he has hit in four of his last five contests.

Center

Deandre Ayton ($8,300) - I want to be clear upfront: it is going to be really hard to pivot away from either Jokic or Andre Drummond tonight at the center spot. They play the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively, who are the two best center matchups in the league. Considering they are also both coming off games of 60-plus FanDuel points, they are likely to be uber-chalky and deservedly so.

But if you must, you might consider paying down slightly for Ayton, who has a delightful matchup of his own against the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas also struggles against opposing centers, allowing the sixth-most FanDuel points to opponents this year, including over 26 points and 15 rebounds per game. The revolving door of Kristaps Porzingis, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Dwight Powell has not been able to keep opposing centers off the glass (Dallas ranks 28th in rebound rate) nor have they had success keeping their opponents from scoring (20th in defensive rating).

Ayton has certainly been hit or miss lately, with games between 20.8 and 63.9 FanDuel points in his last six contests. But if you feel like taking a major risk in tournaments with the valuable one center spot in your lineup, Ayton might be a logical choice to save a little bit of salary .