NBA Betting Guide for 1/13/21: Everyone Loves the Mavericks
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets
There's harmony between the betting trends and numberFire's algorithm on this game in the form of backing the Dallas Mavericks to cover a 4.0-point spread against the Charlotte Hornets and to win the game outright.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Mavs are a -174 moneyline, implying win odds of 63.5%. numberFire sees them winning this game outright 72.6% of the time. Further, 69% (no comment) of the bets and 73% of the money is on the Mavericks' moneyline.
Similar betting numbers are on the Mavericks to cover the 4.0-point spread, and numberFire's algorithm views it as around 56.5% likely that the cover the spread.
The preferred bet by our algorithm is the moneyline (a three-star bet out of five), but the spread is also a two-star bet out of five.
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
The under has been friendly to bettors to start the season. So far, 55.3% of games have hit the closing under at FanDuel Sportsbook, and there are reasons to like this game's under (217.0 points).
The Los Angeles Lakers are the best estimated defense in the NBA, allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions -- according to the underlying data. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 11th (106.4). The Thunder are also just 27th in estimated offensive rating, so they could have a tough time generating their own points.
numberFire's algorithm views the under at 217.0 points to be 59.2% likely, and there's a discrepancy between the tickets and money on the over/under in this game.
Although 73% of the tickets are on the over, 62% of the money is, indicating some smart money is on the under despite the fact that the general consensus is on the over.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers
There's a big disagreement on the over/under in this game between the trends and our algorithm: 66% of the money -- despite 28% of the bets -- is on the under, yet numberFire rates the over as a five-star bet out of five.
There's more agreement on the spread and moneyline, however.
The Los Angeles Clippers are receiving roughly 60% of the bets and money to cover the 7.5-point spread.
numberFire projects the median score here to be a 121.9-111.0 win for the Clippers, a 10.9-point gap. We're rating it as a two-star bet out of five and do prefer the Clippers' moneyline (-300).
Those moneyline odds suggest a probability of 75.0%, but our algorithm shows the Clippers as 84.0% likely to emerge with their eighth win of the season.
