3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 1/11/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trae Young Over 37.5 Points + Assists (-105)
Trae Young is currently on a hot streak with his assists, reaching double-digits in three of the last four games. The Atlanta Hawks guard will take on a Philadelphia 76ers roster that is down to eight people due to COVID issues. Young has dazzled in his seven career meetings with the 76ers, averaging 26.6 points, 10.4 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game. He met them three times last season, scoring 25, 28, and 39 points in addition to 9, 10, and 18 assists.
Young recorded 34, 38, and 57 points-plus-assists in his three meetings in 2019-20 and had 19, 23, 33, and 45 during his rookie campaign, getting better with every game. The Sixers have a solid defense, but with half of their roster out, Young could post a promising double-double and score plenty of points. He has scored at least 29 points in five-of-nine games and 9 or more assists in five-of-nine to start the season.
Our model projects Young to total 28.3 points and 9.4 assists, combining for 37.7 points and assists.
Bradley Beal Over 33.5 Points (-114)
Bradley Beal has impressed once again to start the season, this time dropping 41 and 60 points in his last two games. More impressively, both games featured Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and without him this season, Beal has scored 29 and 31 points. There will be no Westbrook tonight, giving Beal the green light.
In 2020-21, Beal averaged a career-high 30.5 points per game, and in his first nine games this year, he is averaging an NBA-leading 35.0. He did not suit up in Saturday's contest, giving him two days off since he last played.
Beal averaged 28.3 points per game on two days of rest last season, and after the Washington Wizards scored 124 in a loss to the Miami Heat, who knows what they can do if Beal catches fire. Washington should likely only hold on in this matchup if Beal goes for 30-plus, and when he is out there by himself, Beal is liable to go for 40 points, something he did 10 times last season.
Our model predicts Beal to score an NBA-best 31.6 points tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds (+100)
In his last four regular-season meetings and eight out of nine total versus the Orlando Magic, Giannis Antetokounmpo has recorded 12 or more rebounds. In his last three games of the season, though, Giannis has failed to record more than nine. It is simply hard to trust him right now, but Orlando is a quality opponent to get back to double-digit rebounding.
The Milwaukee Bucks star and two-time MVP totaled 13 or more in four-of-five games to start the season and 12 or more in five-of-six before his slide. Our model projects him at 12.8 rebounds, getting back to that key 13 number he averaged last season (13.6).
The Magic welcomed Aaron Gordon back, but he is not taking many boards away from Giannis. The Bucks are fifth in both rebounding percentage (52.5%) and rebounds per game (47.8) as a team. Orlando is right behind Milwaukee with 47.1 per game (6th), so you can expect a battle on the boards between him and the Magic's leading rebounder, Nikola Vucevic.
In Milwaukee's last four meetings with Orlando, they won all four by nine or more points, and Giannis was still able to hit this number. The spread is -10 in favor of the Bucks tonight.
For an even return, and the fact Giannis is doing better rebounding on the road (11.3) than at home (10.0), I like this prop a lot.