FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 1/5/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's five-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.

Point Guard

With Kevin Durant and Spencer Dinwiddie out, there should be plenty of production to go around for the Brooklyn Nets' active players -- and that starts with Kyrie Irving ($9,700). Kyrie is certainly not cheap, but when you consider that he'll be without his running mate, who is sporting a 30.5% usage rate this season, it gets easier to see a path for a huge performance. Irving has already had two games this season with 58.2 and 58 FanDuel points. For quite a bit less, you can roster Jamal Murray ($7,900), who has caught fire in his last two outings, posting 31 and 36 real-life points, with 46.3 and 51 FanDuel points to show for it. Murray would need 39.5 fantasy points to attain 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary), and he should be able to get there against a Minnesota Timberwolves defense that ranks third-worst against points guards, according to Brandon Gdula.

One of our model's preferred options on today's slate is in the mid-range, and that's Coby White ($6,200). The Chicago Bulls will likely be without Tomas Satoransky, Lauri Markkanen, and Chandler Hutchison tonight, which means increased volume for the rest of the roster. White would need 31 FanDuel points for 5X, and that's a number he's equaled or surpassed in four of his last five games. Tyus Jones ($5,700) is another option to consider due to the state of the Memphis Grizzlies roster. With Ja Morant, De'Anthony Melton, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Justise Winslow all out for the Grizzlies, Jones should continue to see high volume. He's averaged 28.9 fantasy points and 30.3 minutes in his last two games.

Our model's top-two projected values are Ricky Rubio ($4,500) and Patty Mills ($3,900). Rubio's risky -- he's surpassed 22.5 (what he needs for 5X) in just two of his six games this season. Still, numberFire's algorithm has him projected for 27.0. Meanwhile, with Derrick White out again for the San Antonio Spurs, Mills is in a position to be a value salary-saver. Mills averaged 22.6 FanDuel points in the five games without White in the lineup.

Shooting Guard

Building a lineup without Caris LeVert ($6,100) in it would not be something I'd recommend. While the sample size is quite small, LeVert is seeing an insane 36.4% usage rate and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute in 107.1 minutes without Durant and Dinwiddie on the court this season, per RotoGrinders. LeVert has already had totals of 45.3 and 61.3 this season, so we know he's plenty capable of monster games. Our models have him projected as the top value at shooting guard. Our model's second-best projected value is LeVert's teammate, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4,100). TLC has flopped in two of his last four games with more than 20 minutes of action, but he recorded 36.2 and 20.3 in the other two such outings. He's seen a 0.15 FanDuel-point-per-minute bump with those two off the court.

Given all the players out for Chicago and the fact that this matchup has a projected total that's 5.5 points higher than any other game, Zach LaVine ($8,100) is a worthwhile target against the Blazers. LaVine has popped for 50.9, 47.0, and 58.7 FanDuel points in three of his last five games (he totaled 39.7 in one of the other two), and he'd only need 40.5 for 5X tonight. He should be a lock to return value barring a blowout. I'd prefer LaVine to Paul George ($8,800), who is also an option that should garner consideration. PG13 has produced 48.5, 56.6, and 52.6 fantasy points in his last three.

There's no shortage of options in the bargain bin on this slate. Desmond Bane ($3,800) has posted 24.8, 19.4, and 19.2 in his last three, and he needs 19 for 5X tonight. Our model has him going for 20.1. numberFire also projects Gary Harris ($3,800) and Lonnie Walker ($4,400) to surpass 5X with relative ease.

Small Forward

We've got LeBron James ($10,200) and Kawhi Leonard ($10,100) on tonight's slate, so let's talk about them. LeBron's officially questionable, though there's been no indication that he won't suit up. King James has recorded 54.8, 48.0, 56.2, and 50.6 in his last four, and he'd need 51 for 5X tonight. Kawhi's only played five games this season, but he's totaled 50.5 (what he needs to return 5X) or more in three of them. The Spurs are among the most generous teams to opposing forwards. I'd try to have some exposure to both stars.

As for value, there's plenty of that to go around at small forward. Otto Porter ($5,300) and Patrick Williams ($4,300) are two of our model's top-three projected values at the position -- it makes sense, given the state of Chicago's roster. Porter has dropped 55.9 and 30.4 in two of his last three, and he'd need 26.5 to reach 5X. Williams is fresh off a 28.5-FanDuel-point performance, though that was only the second time all season he topped 20.8. Our algorithm's top-projected value is Carmelo Anthony ($4,200). Melo's put up 23.0 and 26.5 in two of his last three, and a potential Rodney Hood absence could be all he needs to be a good play.

One player I'd prioritize over all those potential salary-savers is Joe Harris ($4,600). Harris has averaged 29.5 FanDuel points over his last four, and that was with KD in the lineup. The matchup isn't great, but that's not enough reason to fade him here.

Power Forward

If LaMarcus Aldridge is out again tonight, the gap between the most expensive power forward and the second-most would be $4,700. Sitting at the top is Anthony Davis ($10,000). AD needs exactly 50 to return 5X value tonight, and he's only reached that number once all season. That makes him a risky play.

Thaddeus Young ($4,100) continues this column's theme of zeroing in on Chicago players -- that definitely won't backfire...I hope. Young has averaged 26 minutes in his three games since he returned to action, and like all of the other Bulls players, he should see a bump in volume. Our model projects Young to be the best value at the position. Paul Millsap ($4,400) is another player to consider with Michael Porter Jr. out due to COVID protocols. However, Millsap hasn't seen that big of a bump in scoring in his last two games with MPJ out. Instead, JaMychal Green ($3,900) could wind up being a decent plug-in. Green posted 26.5 FanDuel points on Sunday in just his second game this season.

Robert Covington ($5,000) has underwhelmed this season, but a matchup with the Bulls could be the cure for that. Chicago ranks as the best matchup for power forwards, according to Gdula's matchup sheet. Covington has eclipsed 25 (what he needs for 5X) in three of his last five.

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,500) might be the stud to roster on tonight's five-gamer. Jokic has already topped 67 FanDuel points twice this season, and he has yet to record fewer than 44.4. Only the New York Knicks have ceded more fantasy points to the opposing centers than the Wolves have this season, according to FantasyPros. The absence of MPJ doesn't hurt, either.

If you do want to save salary, Serge Ibaka ($4,500) or Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,900) are the plays to consider. Ibaka has scored at least 24.2 FanDuel points in five of his seven outings this season, including greater than 28 in three of his last five. He needs just 22.5 for 5X at his salary. Meanwhile, Carter costs $400 more but brings considerably more upside. WCJ has put up at least 24.2 in five of his last six, and that includes one output of 40.6. His opponent, the Blazers, are the sixth-most generous team to opposing centers this season.