NBA Betting Guide: Monday 8/24/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

Under 216.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Miami Heat have taken a commanding 3-0 lead in their series against the Indiana Pacers. While our models show them eking out a win this evening, the bet that they are highlighting is the under.

The teams combined for an uncharacteristically high 239 points in Game 3, by far the highest output of their seven meetings this season. Before that scoring explosion, the under had hit in each of their four previous matchups; the teams combine for an average of just 207.5 points in those contests, all games in the bubble.

Domantas Sabonis has rejoined the Pacers in the bubble, but he is out again tonight. The under is 8-6 when the Pacers take the court without him this season, including 5-1 in their past six matchups.

The under is 7-3 in 2019-20 when the Pacers are more than 5.0-point underdogs. The under is 4-1-1 in the last six bubble games (all teams) in which a team was favored by more than five points and the total was set below 220 points.

numberFire projects the Eastern Conference rivals to combine for just 207.1 points this evening. We give the under a 68.2% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a four-star play.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers

Blazers +7.0: 1-Star Rating out of 5

After a Game 1 win over the Los Angeles Lakers, the Portland Trail Blazers have not been able to find a formula to once again come out on top. They were blown out in Game 2 by 23 points (the game was nowhere near that close), and they lost Game 3 by eight, letting the game slip out of their hands midway through the third quarter.

Portland will look to rebound tonight and even the series at two games apiece. While our models don't foresee a win, they do project the Blazers to be able to keep it within the 7.0-point spread.

The Blazers are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as more than five-point underdogs when coming off consecutive losses of more than five points each. 2019-20 playoff teams are 7-2 ATS when losing their previous two games by more than five points.

The Lakers are just 6-10 ATS this season as more than five-point favorites when coming off of consecutive wins of more than five points each. They are 2-7 ATS in their past nine such contests.

While our models predict the Lakers to go up 3-1 in the series after tonight's game, we give the Blazers a 55.7% chance of covering the 7.0-point spread. We mark the bet as a one-star play.