3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/13/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Damian Lillard, Over 36.5 Points (-118)
Damian Lillard is a no-brainer. Even if you're not a basketball fan, you should be putting your money on him during this streak. The Blazers' guard has scored 22, 45, 51, and 61 in his last four games, and Portland still has work to do. Now in the eighth spot, they must win out to make the postseason, and Dame D.O.L.L.A. is determined to do so if you couldn't tell. There's no better team to follow a 61-point performance up with than an organization you scored 60 on earlier in the regular season.
In a loss to the Nets earlier in the campaign, Lillard scored 60 points on 19-of-33 (57.6%) shooting from the field. He also went 7-of-16 (43.8%) from deep and a perfect 15-of-15 (100%) from the free-throw line. In his last two games of the bubble, he's attempted 28 and 32 shot attempts in 51- and 61-point performances. He's tried at least 20 shots in six of seven games and 10 or more three-pointers in three of the last four. He made nine triples in his previous game and hit 11 versus Denver last Thursday, Aug. 6.
The Nets allow the sixth-most points per game (24.76) and the eighth-most made three-pointers (2.84) to point guards. That's great news for Lillard, but he's already seen it for himself. Expect him to go all out in this one, and with the news of C.J. McCollum's back problems, Lillard could take on a more significant load, which he has proven he can handle. This line opened at 34.5 Wednesday night but rose to 36.5 with all of the basketball world right now backing Dame.
Devin Booker, Over 30.5 Points (-120)
Devin Booker did it again. He scored 35 points in his previous game, and it was the fourth time -- third straight -- in the bubble he's hit that exact number. In his seven bubble games, Booker has averaged 31 points per game in 34 minutes. Booker has attempted 21 or more field goal attempts in five out of seven bubble games, and the two he didn't, he played 29 minutes due to blowouts.
The Dallas Mavericks are playing their starters as Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are expected to suit up versus the red-hot Phoenix Suns. In three games versus the Mavericks, Booker averages 26.7 points and has scored 18, 32 and 30 points.
There's a chance today that Booker plays 40 or more minutes in a crucial game, which would be the second such game for him in the bubble. When he plays 40 or more minutes this season, he's averaging 32.1 points per game in 11 contests, and when he plays between 30 and 39 minutes, he's totaling 26.1 per game.
The Mavericks are allowing the most points per game (126.6) to opponents during the restart as well as the third-most the three-pointers made (16.0) and attempted (40.4). In his last two games, Book has gone 5-of-11 (45.4%) from deep, and making it even more impressive, those two games were on a back-to-back. Booker has attacked the rim often despite playing 29 and 41 minutes on consecutive nights. He's recorded a whopping 25-of-26 (96.1%) from the free-throw line in that span. He's been an aggressive scorer, and after four of five games going for 35, he's a solid bet to get to 31.
Jakob Poeltl, Over 8.5 Points (-125)
The Utah Jazz are benching Rudy Gobert for rest in this matchup, giving Jakob Poeltl the center duel with Tony Bradley or Ed Davis. Bradley is an athletic young big who needs time to develop as to where Poeltl, under Gregg Popovich, is a savvy vet on the San Antonio Spurs.
In Poeltl's last game, he scored 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting (85.7%), and a few nights before that, he netted a bubble-high 19 points versus Utah. In that meeting with the Jazz, Poeltl played Utah without Gobert in the lineup, as they started Davis at the center position. That could very well happen again, and if it does, Poeltl is all but a lock to score nine points. Utah is tied for worst in the league's field-goal percentage D (49.4%) and is giving up the second-most field goals made (44.1) during the restart.
He's shot 50% or higher in five of his last six games and averaged seven shot attempts per game in his previous four games. numberFire's model predicts Poeltl to score 8.9 points on 4.0 made field goals versus Utah.