3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/11/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Deandre Ayton, Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)
Deandre Ayton did us in yesterday as he missed a COVID-19 test and subsequently missed the entire first quarter. He ended up playing just 17 minutes, recording 10 points and 6 rebounds in the process. Ayton made a significant impact from the moment he stepped onto the court in the second quarter, and had he played a full 30 minutes, he likely would have hit this over totals.
Believe it or not, Ayton plays his best basketball this season on back-to-backs. Although it's only a four-game sample size, it carries over. He's averaged 25.3 points, 16.50 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 36.3 minutes per game in those four games. Today, the Suns take on the 76ers, who are without their All-Star center, Joel Embiid. His matchup will likely be with an aging Al Horford.
After playing only the second and third quarter versus the Thunder, numberFire's model projects Ayton to have 18.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 32.9 minutes tonight -- just missing the under. When Ayton plays 30-39 minutes this season, he's averaging 19.2 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 25 games. He'll be the freshest player on the Suns and expect his workload to make up for Monday's blunder. Look for him to hit the over.
Jayson Tatum, Over 22.5 Points (-104)
Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics enter the second-to-last seeding game, and they are firmly in the 3 seed. Memphis is the opponent on Tuesday, and they are fighting to keep hold of the 8 seed. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens has stated how critical conditioning is for the players, so while it's likely that Tatum plays a standard 30-minute game (if they don't blow Memphis out), I'd check Boston's lineup updates prior to their 5:00 PM ET tip-off just to be sure.
On the season, the Grizzlies allow the seventh-most points per game to small forwards (21.58) and the sixth-most three-pointers made (2.73). Additionally, Memphis ranks 13th in points allowed to power forwards (21.83) and allow the ninth-most three-pointers to the position. That's good news since Tatum has gone 18-of-40 (45%) from deep in his last five games. He's also been automatic from the free-throw line, hitting 23-of-27 (85.1%) and has visited the line six or more times in three of his previous five.
Tatum's been on fire in the bubble after going 2-for-18 (11.1%) from the floor on opening night versus the Bucks. Since then, Tatum has scored 34, 23, 19, 18, and 29, in that order. The two games Tatum didn't score 20 points, he played just 18 and 28 minutes, respectively, due to 22- and 43-point wins. numberFire's model projects Tatum to go for 24.1 points in 34.8 minutes, hitting the overs.
Russell Westbrook, Over 47.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113)
Russell Westbrook enters the driver's seat as James Harden gets a night off, and it could get ugly for the Spurs. Westbrook has had the week off, missing the last two games for Houston, and he returns with no minute restriction against a team he's plenty of success against. Luckily the Spurs are still fighting for the eighth seed in the West, which should allow the game to remain competitive. The Rockets will also be without Eric Gordon and potentially Danuel House Jr.
In two games versus the Spurs, Westbrook has averaged 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 7.0 assists in 44 minutes per game. When Westbrook has had three or more days off this season, he's averaged 30.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 7.9 assists in seven games.
When Westbrook surpasses 40 minutes this season, his averages are 32.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.0 assists. Without Harden in the lineup, he will likely be needed for at least 40 minutes against the Spurs. numberFire's model predicts Westbrook to total 28.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in his first game back, but I think the over on 47.5 is in play.