FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/11/20
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|San Antonio||Oklahoma City||220.0||-7.5||106.25||113.75||18||19|
Dejounte Murray ($5,100): With DeMar DeRozan missing yesterday's game due to back spasms, one of the biggest beneficiaries was Murray. The 23-year-old point guard played a season-high 33.7 minutes and totaled 37.7 FanDuel points -- against a Denver Nuggets defense that's top-10 stingiest to opposing point guards. At $5,100, Murray needs just 25.5 points to equal 5X value -- which is a number he's surpassed in each of the 13 games this season in which he's been on the court for at least 27 minutes. His average during those 13 contests is 35.7 fantasy points, which would be 7X at tonight's price. Our model has Murray totaling 28.1 fantasy points in 27.2 minutes against an Oklahoma City Thunder defense that's surrendered the ninth-most points to the position over their last 15 games.
Damian Lillard ($9,800): The choices of stud point guards tonight come down to Lillard, Russell Westbrook ($10,100), and Ben Simmons ($9,100). Of the three, Lillard is the only one going up against a team that's not above-average in defending the position. In fact, his opponent -- the New Orleans Pelicans -- surrenders the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards on the season. Lillard would need 49 points to equal 5X value on FanDuel, and that's a number he's topped in 8 of his last 10 contests. In fact, his average over his last 10 is a whopping 63.1 points. Portland has a slate-high implied total of 121.25, which is something you'll definitely want a part of.
C.J. McCollum ($6,400): Over their last 15 games, the Pelicans have allowed the second-most fantasy points and fourth-most real-life points to shooting guards. At $6,400, McCollum's price tag is tied for the second-lowest it's been all season, which means it's time to pounce. McCollum needs 32 points to equal 5X value, and that's a number he's exceeded in 8 of his last 11 games where he's been fully healthy. The bout between the Pelicans and Blazers has the highest projected total on the slate, so you're going to want to get as many pieces from that contest as you can. Our algorithm has C.J. totaling 33.7 FanDuel points tonight, making him the fifth-best value at the position.
Zach LaVine ($9,000): Consistency has been a big issue for LaVine, who, in his last eight games, has had performances of 33 and 72.5 FanDuel points -- but this matchup is too tasty to pass up. The Washington Wizards have the league's worst defensive rating. Washington also surrenders the most fantasy points and three-pointers made, second-most assists, and fourth-most real-life points to opposing shooting guards. LaVine's a risky play at his price tag, but he should prove to be worth it tonight. Our model has the 24-year-old as the sixth-best value play at the position and projects him to post 46.2 fantasy points.
Jaylen Brown ($5,900): Tonight will be just the fourth time this season that Brown is healthy and priced under $6K. The 23-year-old will need just 29.5 points to equal 5X value, which is a number he's surpassed in 67.4% of his games this season. The matchup for Brown couldn't be much better. The Houston Rockets have allowed the fourth-most points to the small forward position over their last 15 contests. During that stretch, Houston is also bottom-eight in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and three-pointers made by opposing small forwards. At 232.0, this matchup has the second-highest projected total on the slate -- which only helps Brown's case. numberFire's model has Brown pegged for 32.6 FanDuel points tonight, making him the third-best value play at small forward.
Chandler Hutchison ($4,600): Hutchison is our third-best projected overall value play by our model on tonight's slate. The 23-year-old forward needs a mere 23 points to equal 5X, a number he's exceeded in four of his last five contests. Over their last seven games, the Wizards have allowed 33.5 real-life and 52.78 fantasy points to the position -- both tops in the league. RotoGrinders is projecting Hutchison at just 10 percent ownership tonight, which makes him an even more valuable play. Our model has Hutchison totaling 29.1 points in 31.4 minutes of play tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,100): The Thunder are actually one of the better teams at defending power forwards this season, which makes Aldridge a pure volume play. In his 239 minutes without DeMar DeRozan on the court this season, Aldridge sports a team-high 30.1% usage rate and 1.37 fantasy points per minute. In his last five games, LMA has had performances of 42.5, 50.25, and 50.5 FanDuel points, which means he's certainly capable of surpassing the 35.5 points needed to exceed 5X tonight. numberFire projects Aldridge to post 39.7 points tonight, making him the third-best value at the position.
Robert Covington ($6,000): At 6' 7", Covington will be the tallest player seeing significant playing time for the Rockets. That alone makes him quite valuable. The matchup with the Celtics is also one that the 29-year-old should take advantage of. Boston has the league's sixth-best defensive rating, and from a fantasy perspective, they've been well-above average in defending four of the five positions on the court. The one position Boston has struggled defending is power forwards. Over their last 15 contests, the Celtics have allowed the third-most real-life and fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Covington -- who saw 34.8 minutes of action in his first game with Houston -- could easily outperform his $6K price tag. Our model has him posting 31.4 points and returning 5.23X value.
Enes Kanter ($4,300): Given the fact that the Rockets will be starting 6' 5" P.J. Tucker at center, it makes sense to target big men going up against them. Over their last 15 games, Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points and rebounds to opposing centers, as well as the fourth-most real-life points. Kanter is priced at a salivating $4.3K tonight, which means he needs just 21.5 points to reach 5X value -- the 27-year-old has exceeded 28 FanDuel points in three of his last six contests. Our model projects Kanter at a conservative 22.5 points, but there's a good chance he surpasses that in this matchup.