NBA Odds Update: The Bucks Keep Moving Up
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. Here's a look at the only two teams who had their title odds move by more than two percentage points.
Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Title Odds: +480
numberFire Champs Probability: 24.2%
The Milwaukee Bucks make an appearance on this list for the third week in a row. Why? Well, their championship odds have jumped by 1.8 percent or more for the fourth consecutive week -- this time rising by 5.2 percent.
Milwaukee hasn't lost a game in over a month, with their last defeat coming on November 8th -- they've won 14 straight since.
The Bucks are first in the league in net and defensive rating, by 3.5 points and 1.2 points, respectively. The Deer are also first in rebounding, true shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentage, as well as fourth in blocks, seventh in assists, and eighth in turnover percentage. Milwaukee's nERD rating -- which is our efficiency metric based on in-game data -- is a league-high 88.3. nERD is indicative of a team's expected winning percentage, so an average team will have a nERD score of 50.0. According to my brilliant math, the Bucks are quite far from being an average team.
Over his last four games, Giannis Antetokounmpo has posted averages of 29.3 points, 11 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on 59.5 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three. Those numbers might look underwhelming when compared to his season averages, but there is a caveat. The caveat is that he's done all of this while averaging just 24 minutes per game. Look at those numbers again, and let that fact marinate. It's downright absurd.
This week alone, the Bucks went 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 31.7. You'd think that they only faced weak opponents, but you'd be wrong. Friday's 27-point walloping of the Los Angeles Clippers came with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the court.
Even at +480, the Bucks are worth a title bet.
Los Angeles Clippers
FanDuel Title Odds: +320
numberFire Champs Probability: 10.8%
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
The Clippers once had odds well above 20 percent, but that's now down to 10.8. Los Angeles has all the makings of a superteam, but they have yet to look like one this season. Beating up on the Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers isn't going to convince anyone that you're capable of dominating the league, nor will losing to the Eastern Conference front-runners by 27.
As a team, the Clips haven't shot the ball very well -- coming in 13th in the league in true shooting percentage and 16th in effective field goal percentage. And, given all of the individual defensive on the team, LA should be one of the elite teams on that side of the ball. That is not the case, however, as the Clippers are just 10th with a defensive rating of 104.5.
At +320, the Clippers currently have the highest Championship odds of any team in the NBA. There's very little value to be had by betting on Kawhi Leonard and Co. right now.
