FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 11/29/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|New Orleans||Oklahoma City||229.5||-4.0||112.75||116.75||3||25|
|LA Clippers||San Antonio||225.5||+6.0||115.75||109.75||6||15|
It's a heavy 12-game slate, and there are no matchups with teams inside the top 12 in seconds per play offensively, but that does mean that there are pace-up matchups for a lot of teams. Seven of the 12 games are separated at the top in terms of over/under, and only the bottom four really look concerning in relation to the full slate.
There are plenty of studs at the top of the board: Luka Doncic ($12,200), Trae Young ($9,600), Damian Lillard ($9,300), Ben Simmons ($8,900), and Malcolm Brogdon ($8,800). On a per-dollar basis, numberFire is keenest on Simmons and Lillard. Simmons has had a slight boost with Al Horford out.
Mike Conley ($6,500) gets a second crack at his former team. He had 19 shots in 35 minutes against them the last time they met. He has disappointed on the full season with just 0.84 FanDuel points per minute on a 23.3% usage rate.
Rajon Rondo ($4,800) and Darius Garland ($3,900) are some nice value options tonight. numberFire projects each for at least 5.09 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. Rondo is up in pace against the Washington Wizards' league-worst defense. Garland should get around 27 minutes in the biggest pace-up matchup possible.
Core Plays: Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Damian Lillard
Secondary Plays: Darius Garland, Mike Conley, Luka Doncic
Tournament Plays: Eric Bledsoe ($7,600), Ben Simmons, Malcolm Brogdon
Evan Fournier ($6,000) has seen a huge uptick in minutes (34, 37, 39) the past three games. Nikola Vucevic is out, and Aaron Gordon is doubtful. With those two off the court, Fournier's usage rate jumps to 28.8%. He averages 32.7 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in that split. He's a great mid-range play.
Bradley Beal ($9,500) is always a high-floor option. He's in a pace-down matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers and has blowout risk. However, numberFire projects him for nearly 38 minutes tonight, and that minutes workload gives him the best tournament value in my model among all shooting guards.
Furkan Korkmaz ($3,500) rates out second in value according to numberFire's projections, and he's a good bet to pay off a minimum salary price tag. Korkmaz has averaged just 0.61 FanDuel points per minute, but based on a 6.1 player impact estimate and a 15.9% usage rate, he should be around 0.70.
Core Plays: Evan Fournier, Bradley Beal, Furkan Korkmaz
Secondary Plays: Donovan Mitchell ($8,600), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,300), DeMar DeRozan ($7,800)
Tournament Plays: Dennis Schroder ($5,700), Terrence Ross ($4,600), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,000)
My model prefers LeBron James ($11,400) against the Wizards over Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,700) against the Cleveland Cavaliers when adjusting for salary. Neither are bad options, and their floors are better than all other small forward ceilings tonight. Rostering both is a high-upside play, so long as the value picks open up.
Tobias Harris ($7,100) should log heavy, heavy minutes tonight without Al Horford. numberFire projects him for nearly 38, and he is a top-five play in my model in terms of floor and ceiling. If you can't get to James or Antetokounmpo, Harris is definitely a priority.
T.J. Warren ($5,600) shapes up as a mid-range building block in plus individual matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. Warren has had 17, 21, 4, 15, and 16 shot attempts in his past five games. Atlanta is 28th in defensive rating
Core Plays: LeBron James, Tobias Harris, T.J. Warren
Secondary Plays: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kenrich Williams ($4,300), James Ennis ($3,600)
Tournament Plays: Brandon Ingram ($8,800), Kelly Oubre ($6,800), Carmelo Anthony ($5,800)
Anthony Davis ($11,300) should run wild on the Wizards' speedy pace and poor defense. They rank 27th in rebounding rate, and Davis averages a hefty 1.51 FanDuel points per minute. Davis could be the anchor play of the night.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,700) and Blake Griffin ($7,400) stand out a little more in my projections than Kristaps Porzingis ($8,400) and LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600), but this upper range is pretty loaded with great plays who project well. The problem becomes roster construction with Davis in such an enticing spot and a stellar value play in Chris Boucher ($3,700).
Boucher went nuts in garbage time last game for 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists over 25 minutes. He averages just 13 minutes per game but is projected by numberFire for 18, closer to his 18.5 minutes per game that he's averaged over his past five games.
Core Plays: Anthony Davis, Chris Boucher, Domantas Sabonis
Secondary Plays: Blake Griffin, Rui Hachimura ($4,600), Maxi Kleber ($4,200)
Tournament Plays: Kristaps Porzingis, Jabari Parker ($7,000), LaMarcus Aldridge
Both Andre Drummond ($9,600) and Joel Embiid ($10,200) rate out well in matchups against the Charlotte Hornets and New York Knicks, respectively, but the edge goes to Drummond, as the Hornets are both a worse defense and the worst rebounding team in the NBA.
numberFire's projections are also high on Rudy Gobert ($8,300), projecting him for a 16-point, 14-rebound game against the Memphis Grizzlies. Thomas Bryant ($6,500) pops as the fourth-best tournament value in my model, behind Drummond, Gobert, and Embiid.
Cheaper options tonight include Jakob Poeltl ($4,900) Mohamed Bamba ($4,500), JaVale McGee ($4,100), and Bismack Biyombo ($3,900), making center a pretty robust position. The best floor among those four belongs to Bamba.
Core Plays: Andre Drummond, Rudy Gobert, Mo Bamba
Secondary Plays: Joel Embiid, Thomas Bryant, JaVale McGee
Tournament Plays: Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600), Jakob Poeltl, Bismack Biyombo,