3 NBA Prop Bets to Target on 4/17/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the NBA. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
DeMar DeRozan OVER 22.5 Points (-113)
DeMar DeRozan struggled some in the Toronto Raptors' Game 1 win, shooting 6-for-17 from the floor with 17 points. It was DeRozan's first game in five meetings -- both regular season and playoffs -- against the Washington Wizards that he failed to score at least 23 points. And for Game 2, our models like DeRozan to be closer to his regular season averages.
In four regular season games, DeRozan averaged 26.3 points per game against Washington and, for Game 2, our models like DeRozan to produce 26.0 points tonight.
Al Horford OVER 14.5 Points (-113)
Without Kyrie Irving the Boston Celtics have been forced to rely more on Al Horford's offense, and the big man delivered with 24 points on just 8 shot attempts in Game 1. Once again, Horford is being undervalued by the sportsbooks, and our models see that as an opportunity for a winning prop ticket.
The Bucks have been one of the worst interior defenses in the league this season. They ranked 29th in defensive rebounding rate at 75.9% in the regular season, and our DvP Matchup Chart ranks them 28th against centers. Assuming Horford sees big minutes again, our models like him for 17.1 points.
Eric Bledsoe OVER 16.5 Points (-113)
It's a bit surprising to see our projections so bullish on Eric Bledsoe Tuesday night considering the Boston Celtics have continued to be a strong defensive team against point guards. However, despite the Celtics ranking 5th-best in our DvP Matchup Chart against point guards, our models see value in Bledsoe.
In Game 1, Bledsoe fouled out with just nine points in the loss, but the Bucks' point guard went for 18 points twice against the Celtics in the regular season. Accordingly, our models like him to bounce back in Game 2 with a projection of 20.2 points.
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