NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 11/19/16
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes hugely on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and depending on injury news, even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer and a handful of other awesome tools to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with a primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each price point.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's slate.
Best of the Best
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,600): Despite a couple of down games recently, Giannis is turning in an outstanding fantasy season, totaling five outings of at least 50 FanDuel points in his first 11 games. His 44.3 fantasy points per game are the eighth-most in the league, and with a 28% usage rate and very strong peripheral numbers (8.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.2 blocks and 1.7 steals to go with his 21.1 points per game) he offers a great floor on a nightly basis. He draws a great matchup tonight, playing way up in pace against a Golden State Warriors team that has allowed top-10 fantasy production this season to both point guards and shooting guards. The high pace and 217 over/under (the highest on the slate) give him great upside to go with that floor.
Kevin Durant ($9,700): On the other side of that game, the Milwaukee Bucks have allowed top-10 fantasy production to small forwards this season, making it a great matchup for Durant. KD has been an incredibly consistent fantasy producer. He's put up at least 45 FanDuel points in eight of 12 games this season, while his 47.3 per game are the fourth-most in the league. Our models project him as the second-highest fantasy scorer of the night, and he can be had for a full $2,000 cheaper than James Harden, who we project for only 0.6 more fantasy points.
Tobias Harris ($6,100): The Boston Celtics currently rank 24th in defensive rating, 18th in offensive rebound rate and 29th in defensive rebound rate, leading to them allowing top-10 fantasy production to opponents at both forward positions. Harris is averaging 16.5 points and 5.0 rebounds in 32.8 minutes per game. Harris has seen an uptick in minutes recently, playing at least 36 minutes in three straight games before having his minutes limited in a blowout loss last night -- likely in an effort to keep him fresh for tonight's second half of the back-to-back set.
Devin Booker ($6,500): The Phoenix Suns matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers should be full of fantasy goodness. The Suns are playing at the league's second-fastest pace this season, while both teams rank bottom five in defensive rating. Booker doesn't offer a particularly high floor and is better-suited as a tournament play, but he has flashed some elite upside this season with two 35-plus point (and 40-plus fantasy point) performances. His 17.3 field goal attempts per game are the most on the Suns by a pretty decent margin, and against a 76ers team that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, he has really strong upside.
Seth Curry ($4,100): With J.J. Barea sidelined, Curry played 34 minutes last night, attempting 14 field goals. Barea is missing extended time, and Curry should continue his trend of playing 30-plus minutes -- something he has done in five straight games. He posted a 21.9% usage rate yesterday, bringing him to 23.6% when Barea has been off the floor this season (per NBAWowy). A guy playing 30-plus minutes with solid usage at only $4,100 is an absolute bargain, and Curry's price is unlikely to remain this low for long.
John Henson ($4,100): Greg Monroe seems to be in the doghouse for the Milwaukee Bucks, having played only 7.4 minutes in his last game before riding the pine for the entirety of Thursday's game. This has meant an uptick in minutes for Henson, who played a season-high 28 minutes on Thursday. Today's matchup with the Warriors is a great one for Henson as Golden State ranks bottom-10 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. Henson owns a solid 17.8% total rebound rate on the season and should benefit from the extra possessions.
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