MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 7/23/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Top Three Pitchers
Shelby Miller - Sometimes, the high price is actually worth it. That surely seems to be the case with Miller today, whose projected wins and strikeouts are so far ahead of other eligible pitchers he needs binoculars to see their projected stats. (Remember, Tony Cingrani isn't available in most formats because he's the second game of the Reds/Giants doubleheader.) He hits everything we look for: a 26.4 percent strikeout rate? Check. A solid offense behind him, leading to a 0.49 projected wins? Check. Facing a Phillies team that is average in OBP, slugging, strikeouts, and draws the third-least walks in the league? Checks all around.
Carlos Torres - I feel like I shouldn't even have to mention the sample size problem with Carlos Torres today; there's barely a sample there. But there's barely a cost as well, and if there's a chance he's going to continue his 0.882 WHIP and insane 10.00 SO/BB ratio through 22.2 IP so far this season, I will absolutely take that risk on my side. He does have one thing going for him: Atlanta's 22.6 percent strikeout rate is the second-highest of any team in the majors. That matches up nicely with the guy whose main issue historically is problems only when allowing balls in play (.322 career BABIP allowed for Torres).
Donovan Hand - Well, we selected Gorzelanny yesterday, and it was going well... for about 5 innings, then the wheels came off. So naturally, we're going to go right back and take another Brewers pitcher today. Why, you ask? Because the Padres haven't magically risen from the bottom tier of the OBP and slugging percentage charts overnight, and Hand does hold a low walk rate (6.0 percent) and homerun rate (1.5 percent) after all. Hand does allow 77 percent of opposing batters to hit a ball in play against him, but the Padres' below-average .291 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) acts as a nice buffer in Hand's favor.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Buster Posey - Remember: the first game is the eligible one in most daily fantasy formats of the night doubleheader. And that means you're not selecting Posey against Tony Cingrani, who would scare me worse than an Amanda Bynes Instagram, but instead first-start-since-2011 Greg Reynolds. We don't have much to go on for Reynolds - his career line is 13 starts in 2008 and three starts in 2011 - but a 1.691 career WHIP and 9.1 percent career strikeout rate in limited time is still ugly. We have no qualms about expecting Posey to explode in Game 1 tonight, especially in relation to other catching options.
Troy Tulowitzki - Nope, still don't understand shortstop pricing. I know Hanley Ramirez has been hot recently, but placing his cost far above Troy Tulowitzki in every single format. And in some (here's looking at you, FantasyFeud) he's as low as the fourth-highest cost for shortstops? I'll take advantage of that inefficiency quite easily, thank you very much. Jose Fernandez may be the ace of the Marlins staff this year with his 1.080 WHIP and 24.3 percent strikeout rate, but that .247 BABIP allowed looks unsustainable given that he has allowed line drives on 21 percent of balls in play. Tulo's own .344 BABIP and league-leading 30 percent line drive rate should combat that nicely.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Nate McLouth - Slight tangent because I can (power!): I had Ryan Braun in my main fantasy league. Selected him in the first round and everything. So yeah, yesterday wasn't fun. But then I checked the waiver wire, and who was sitting there? Nate McLouth. A .317 batting average on balls in play, a 24 percent line drive rate, and a homerun rate likely to go up toward the mean? I'll take that in a heartbeat and gleefully reject all of the stupid trade offers I got in Braun's wake (no, I won't trade you Bumgarner for Rasmus, but thanks for trying). Bruce Chen's own 25 percent line drive rate and 72 percent in-play rate allowed make him a great matchup for McLouth tonight.
Howie Kendrick - Twins starter Kyle Gibson holds a 1.657 WHIP, 10.8 percent strikeout rate, 8.8 percent walk rate, and a .354 BABIP. I know he's only four starts into his career and is young, but oh boy, that's really not a great sign. And allowing 77 percent of opposing batters to hit a ball in play isn't a great omen when facing a guy like Kendrick, who holds a (sustainable) .352 BABIP this season and a 27 percent line drive rate. Toss in 0.25 projected homeruns for Kendrick tonight, and you've got a certified potential breakout star.