MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 7/22/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Top Three Pitchers
Tom Gorzelanny - No, I haven't completely lost my mind (at least not yet). Gorzelanny, the Brewers pitcher that has started exactly three games this season and one all last year (despite appearing in 45 games) really is the best bang for your buck today. I wouldn't worry about him not going deep into games; his career 5.6 IP per start is just under the MLB average. Instead, I'd focus on that sweet 1.063 WHIP, 24.0 percent strikeout rate, and much-lower-than average 19 percent line drive rate. Nobody's making solid contact against him. Not that the Padres are making contact anyway, mind you, with an OBP and slugging in the bottom ten of the majors.
Tim Lincecum - Yeah yeah, his arm may be somewhere between dead and hanging on by a thread after his no-hitter. I get it. But strangely enough, that high pitch count has kept his cost from shooting through the roof, and he's still a top option tonight, even against the Reds. His one weakness - a high .318 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed - shouldn't be exploited by Cincy's league-average .295 BABIP. Meanwhile, his 25.2 percent strikeout rate should have a chance to shine against the Reds' slightly above-average tendency to put the K on the board.
Tommy Milone - Outside of Gorzelanny and Lincecum, we're not super duper positively siked about any one pitcher today, but Milone's still worth the look. It's all about the matchup play here - Milone's 0.48 projected wins against the Astros are the second-highest projected total of any single pitcher (Lincecum's got 0.51), and his 0.24 projected losses are the lowest of any starter. He won't get you much else, as his 17.5 percent strikeout rate isn't great (even though the Astros like K's more than the Kardashians), but he's one of the safest plays you'll find today.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Adam Jones - What, you thought the big slugger on the Orioles would be that Davis guy? At least for tonight, you'd be sorely mistaken. Jones' 0.34 projected HR are the most of any single batter tonight going against Kansas City's Wade Davis. Jones' manageable 18.3 percent strikeout rate limits his downside in a way that Davis could only dream of, but his 4.7 percent homerun rate means his potential is through the roof. Oh, and Davis having allowed 29 percent of balls in play to be hit for line drives, leading to a .382 BABIP, doesn't hurt either.
Robinson Cano - Normally I would just assume you know to always pick Cano at this point, but going against Yu Darvish tonight, I feel like it's important to note that You do not turn your back on Robinson Cano. Please. Even against the stronger matchup, he still leads all second basemen in projected (deep breath) homeruns, runs, RBI, doubles, and batting average. Oh, and with his 13.2 percent strikeout rate this season, his 0.59 projected K's tonight are only mid-pack among second baseman. He's worth the premium cost. Don't overthink it.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Josh Donaldson - We thought he should have been an All-Star, and yet, his cost remains in the middle of the pack for third basemen. He's not in the top three of any of the daily fantasy sites we produce optimized rosters for, and on some, he's not even in the top ten of highest cost 3B options. What gives? Beats me, but I don't mind facing Dallas Keuchel's 1.506 WHIP, 3.5 percent homerun rate, and .330 BABIP allowed this season. Miggy and Wright may have a comparable amount of projected points, but you simply can't ignore Donaldson's value tonight.
Dexter Fowler - Just consider this your placeholder for "Insert the Rockies hitter of your choice here". Fowler, CarGo, Cuddyer, and Tulowitzki all feature prominently on our optimized rosters today, and it's all thanks to Coors Field and Mr. Tom Koehler. Sure, I know that a 1.232 WHIP isn't that bad in the grand scheme of things, but that's due to a (likely unsustainably) low .266 BABIP against. When you allow 74 percent of opposing batters to get a ball in play, that low BABIP is the only way you're ever going to be moderately effective. Too bad, then, that the Rockies hold the league's fourth-best BABIP as a team and Fowler is all the way up at .348.