MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 6/27/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Zack Greinke - Look at all of these high-priced pitchers! This is wholly unexpected for a day with just nine games. I mean, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Doug Fister, Matt Garza... what's that? All of those guys are early game pitchers and our optimized roster just looks at late games? Well, crap. That means Greinke is almost our top pitcher tonight by default, but I'm not too terribly angry about it. He holds 0.41 projected wins and only 0.27 projected losses against Philadelphia, his 1.7 percent homerun rate limits Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown, and despite a lower-than-usual 17.7 percent K rate, his 5.06 projected strikeouts are still most among late pitchers.
Miguel Gonzalez - There aren't any fireballers tonight, so selecting your daily fantasy pitcher will simply come down to A. who can get the win and B. who can keep guys off base the best. After Greinke, the next best option for those two points is Gonzalez. He holds 0.37 projected wins against the Indians tonight, and his 1.30 projected WHIP is tied with Greinke for the best among late-game starters. Cleveland may make solid contact with a 22 percent line drive rate and a .302 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but Gonzalez's own 17 percent LD% and .257 BABIP mitigates those advantages quite nicely.
Corey Kluber - Yeah, we're struggling. Thanks for noticing. It brings me actual physical pain to recommend two pitchers going against each other, but when there aren't any other solid mid-priced values on the board I can trust (Jonathan Pettibone's 0.43 projected losses? Jeremy Guthrie's 0.45? Help?), I'm left with no other choice. Even though Kluber has a higher projected loss count than win count, he still should be able to put up solid fantasy numbers thanks to a 23.8 percent strikeout rate and 4.5 percent walk rate this season. It also helps that, as a team, the Orioles have drawn the fourth-lowest proportion of walks in the majors.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez - Some quick facts about Mets starter Jeremy Hefner: 1. He holds a 1.309 WHIP, and that's actually the best mark of his two year MLB career. 2. He has allowed homeruns on 3.5 percent of opposing plate appearances, 0.8 percent above the MLB average. 3. His 18.0 percent strikeout rate is better than last year but still under the MLB average. His 7.0 percent walk rate, however, is 2.6 percent higher than last year... This is who I'm supposed to be intimidated by? CarGo isn't the only Rockies batter we like, but he's the highest-profile and highest-FP earning one.
David Ortiz - I do wonder how many people will see a 0 in the loss column, a 2.18 ERA, and a 1.258 WHIP and actually be scared off by Chien-Ming Wang. Here are the real facts: I have pitched in only three fewer MLB games than Wang has this season. His stats in a small sample size means nothing. Know what does mean something, though? How Wang has allowed over a 3.2 percent homerun rate each of his three previous seasons pitched, how his two Nationals years never saw him break the 10 percent strikeout rate barrier, and how his .297 career BABIP is right at the MLB average. Big Papi should feast.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Josh Willingham - I had a slight chuckle when I looked at our outfielder projections today, and the guy with the most projected homeruns is one Mr. Yasiel Puig. So, he's conquered math too, huh? But his cost is already universally astronomical, so it's more helpful to try and pick up homeruns on the cheap. Enter Josh Willingham. His 0.25 projected homeruns are fourth-most among outfielders today (including Chris Davis and his dual positions), which is unsurpising given his 3.5 percent (4.4 percent career) homerun rate. Guthrie's 4.7 percent homerun rate allowed this season only helps as well.
Daniel Murphy - Other than David Wright, I honestly can't remember the last time I wrote about a Mets player. Matt Harvey before his cost shot sky-high, probably? But on a day where Cano and Hill have early games, the Mets' Murphy has the second baseman floor all to himself. His .334 average severely outpaces any other 2B option today; in fact, it's the highest projected average of anyone playing in a late game. But that's what happens what 79 percent of your total plate appearances place a ball in play and the opposing starter holds a .338 BABIP.