MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 6/26/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw - There is one starting pitcher I trust more than any other tonight, and he's out on the West Coast. Among the five fantasy platforms we produce optimized rosters for, Clayton Kershaw is the highest priced pitcher in only two of them. I suppose that's because of his run support, but for a guy with a 25.0 percent strikeout rate, 1.4 percent homerun rate, 0.988 WHIP, and .255 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), that fact astounds me even if the other pitcher is King Felix. Even though San Fran is 10th in OBP, they're below-average in slugging and third-to-last in homerun rate. That's good enough for me to expect Kershaw Domination.
Lance Lynn - Picking Lynn depends solely on your format, so I would suggest moseying on over to our daily projections page before finalizing him. Are you setting your roster on a format such as StarStreet, where Lynn is inexplicably the 13th-highest cost pitcher today? I'm grabbing him in a heartbeat. How about FanDuel, where he's fifth? I'm certainly thinking about it. But somewhere like DraftKings, where he's third and only $700 cheaper than King Felix? No thank you. Even with his 0.47 projected wins against the Astros, I'd like better than a projected 3.70 ERA before I recommend him across the board.
Jose Alvarez - Low cost alert! So, how does a low-cost pitcher with a 3.33 SO/BB ratio and 0.38 projected wins sound to you? Pretty good? Because that's what you're getting in Jose Alvarez; the rookie Tigers pitcher holds an above-average 22.7 percent strikeout rate and below-average 6.8 percent walk rate. To be fair, his 4.6 percent homerun rate allowed scares the Rally Monkey out of me, even against the league-average Angels' homerun rate. But if you can look past his 4.68 projected ERA and realize the run support he's likely to get, you can capitalize on fantasy points from wins tonight.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Adrian Beltre - Yup, still going against Andy Pettitte. It hasn't failed me too badly yet, especially when you look at his 1.320 WHIP and below-average 18.2 percent strikeout rate. The key to beating Pettitte, though is that .316 BABIP he has allowed to opposing batters this season. Get a ball in play, and you're more likely than normal to have success. That's great for Beltre, as an insanely high 78 percent of his total plate appearances have resulted in a ball in play (MLB average: 68%), and 23 percent of those appearances were line drive hits (MLB average: 20%).
Aaron Hill - Well, that didn't take long, did it? 2-for-4, 2 R, and 1 BB in his first game back sets the tone for what I predicted would be a solid bounceback from Mr. Hill. Now, he gets to face Jordan Zimmermann, who is a great pitcher this season at preventing hits, but he also has a low K rate and allows 75 percent of opposing batters to hit a ball into play. Zimmermann's low .243 BABIP clashes directly with Hill's high .315 BABIP since the start of 2012. While his cost remains relatively reasonable, I'm willing to take the risk.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
A.J. Pierzynski - Remember that stuff we said about Beltre and having success by putting balls in play against Pettitte? I'm not one to copy-and-paste, but the catcher's .321 BABIP, 78 percent in-play rate, and 24 percent line drive rate certainly warrant it. We love him for all of the same reasons we love Beltre tonight, and his catchers-leading 0.84 RBIs (and second-best .323 average) reflects that high on-base probability.
B.J. Upton - What to make of B.J. Upton? He still holds that season-long .177 batting average, but a .341 OBP in the last 14 days and a .356 OBP in the last 28 days means those days of doing the Charlie Brown shuffle back to the dugout every single at-bat are behind him. So is the lack of power; he has a .487 slugging percentage over the last 14 days as well. And considering the matchup (the main reason I like him), that's good enough for me: Luis Mendoza has a weak 14.3 percent strikeout rate, high 9.6 percent walk rate, and allows homeruns on a league-average 2.7 percent of opposing plate appearances.