MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 6/25/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Gio Gonzalez - Yes, the Diamondbacks hold a 41-34 mark, and they have Aaron Hill coming back tonight. But as a team, their OBP and strikeout rate is only slightly better than average, their slugging and homerun rate is slightly worse than average, and their walk rate is exactly average. This is nothing more than a mediocre offense that Gio is facing tonight, which is helpful against his solid 24.5 percent K rate. I don't exactly know why Gio's cost is comparatively low across most formats given his 1.145 WHIP, but hey, I'll take it.
Chris Sale - It's going to be a night for high-priced pitchers, and Sale's numbers look very similar to Gio's tonight. Sale holds slightly lower projected wins (0.42 vs 0.45), but he also holds slightly more projected strikeouts (5.74 vs. 5.38) thanks to the Mets' third-highest strikeout rate, so you get to pick your poison. I'm not worried about Sale facing off against Zack Wheeler tonight; one game of no runs allowed is just too small of a sample size to be taken seriously quite yet.
Matt Moore - After two high-priced guys, perhaps you want a low-cost option in two-pitcher fantasy formats. That's where Matt Moore comes in. All of Toronto's hitting value comes from their power - their slugging is seventh among MLB teams, but their on-base percentage is below average. Thankfully for Tampa, Moore only allows homeruns on 2.3 percent of plate appearances (slightly below MLB average) and 6.6 percent of fly balls, limiting the damage Toronto can do against him. And facing off against Mark Buerhle, I want his 0.42 projected wins and 0.28 projected losses on my side as well.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez - Ryan Dempster is a strikeout machine with his 23.4 percent strikeout rate, and Gonzalez is indeed prone to the occasional K. But if it's not a strikeout, then watch out: Dempster has given up homeruns on 4.2 percent of opposing plate appearances this season and an astounding 13.7 percent of total fly balls allowed. I know this game is in Boston and not Colorado, but CarGo's 0.28 projected HR, 0.87 projected R (which leads all batters), and 0.85 projected RBI surprises me very little. Just be careful leading up to gametime, he did leave Sunday's game with leg cramps, but all indications are he should be fine.
David Ortiz - Can we just take all of the hitters in the Rockies/Red Sox game today? That seems to be the way our optimized rosters are leaning. But that's not exactly a surprise when you look at Juan Nicasio's numbers - a below-average 15.7 percent K rate, an above-average 2.9 percent homerun rate and 8.2 percent walk rate, and a .271 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that isn't likely to stay that low given his .318 career clip. Ortiz's 1.05 projected RBI is one of the highest projected totals I've seen in my time analyzing numberFire's daily fantasy projections. Make sure to take advantage.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
DJ LeMahieu - We're on board. A below-average 16.9 percent strikeout rate, an outrageous 34 percent line drive rate that has led to a .356 BABIP, and a perfect 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts so far this season? I will take all of these things please. The Rockies second baseman has hit second in the lineup in each of Colorado's past four games, and coming off a rest day, there's no reason to believe that will change. He's our highest FP second baseman regardless of cost; his low price tag simply makes him an unbelievable value.
Josh Willingham - Jose Fernandez of the Marlins isn't half bad; he even appears on one of our optimized rosters tonight against the Twins. His 24.9 percent strikeout rate, 1.9 percent homerun rate, and 1.105 WHIP all represent a solid pitcher. But solid can only take you so far, and his low 0.85 GB/FB ratio could be his undoing. Willingham may strike out more frequently than Chris Brown at a NOW meeting, but he also hits 13.5 percent of his fly balls for homeruns. And when you can get Willingham and his seemingly daily 0.30 projected HR at a low price (like tonight), especially when coupled with a third-highest 0.92 projected RBI, you strike.