MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 6/24/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner - Don't mind me, I just really don't like days with only four games. There aren't any choices, you know? And of the eight starting pitcher option, one (Mr. Lee) holds an outrageously high cost and 0.50 projected losses. So that means that of the high-cost options, there is really only the opposing pitchers Bumgarner and Ryu to select from, and we like Bumgarner just a tiny bit more. He holds 0.03 more projected wins, 0.74 more projected strikeouts, and 0.22 more projected innings pitched. Even with more projected homeruns allowed and a 0.01 higher WHIP, the K's make him the strongest play.
Jeremy Hellickson - Toronto holds an above-average strikeout rate, homerun rate, and walk rate, and they're right at the league average in OBP. This is known. But Toronto's poor .282 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) fits snugly with Hellickson's 73 percent of opposing plate appearances with a ball in play. Hellickson may have allowed a .302 BABIP to opposing batters this season (the main reason behind his high 5.50 ERA), but we expect both of those numbers to regress towards the mean as his career BABIP sits at only .256.
Eric Stults - Of the eight teams playing tonight, seven hold an OBP in the top 18 of MLB teams. Who doesn't? Those Philadelphia Phillies, down at No. 22 with a .306 OBP. When coupled with their No. 18 .397 slugging, Stults has one of his easier matchups he'll ever face on the board tonight. Not that he needs it, mind you, with a 1.093 WHIP. But similar to Hellickson, he should have success against Philadelphia's worse-than-average BABIP against his own 75 percent in play rate and .271 pitching BABIP.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Buster Posey - Yes, Posey will be the highest priced catcher on the board tonight. And he also holds a .080 higher projected average and 0.06 more projected runs scored than the universal No. 2 catcher, Carlos Santana. Considering Ryu's league-average strikeout rate, walk rate, BABIP, and line drive percentage, I don't see any reason Posey won't be able to hold true to form with his own excellent 11.4 percent strikeout rate, 10.0 percent walk rate, and .324 BABIP. The cost is worth it tonight.
Manny Machado - With Cabrera and normal optimized roster 3B Adrian Beltre not playing tonight, where to turn? I wouldn't suggest to Evan Longoria - Esmil Rogers has only allowed homeruns on 1.5 percent of opposing plate appearances this season (league average: 2.7 percent), limiting Longoria's main weapon. Ubaldo Jimenez, meanwhile, has allowed homeruns on 3.2 percent of opposing plate appearances along with a 12.2 percent walk rate. Jimenez's .267 BABIP also seems unsustainably low and due to rise. I'd like Machado more than Longoria even if they were the same cost; Machado's slightly lower price tag just seals the deal.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Melky Cabrera - As mentioned before, we do like Hellickson tonight. But as I said, what's one thing Hellickson does effectively? Keep balls in play. Moreso than most other Blue Jays hitters, that's one aspect of the game that suits Cabrera quite nicely. His BABIP sits at a solid .308 for this season and .309 for his career. When mixed with an outrageous 25 percent line drive rate, Cabrera's projected .319 average - .006 more than any other outfielder tonight - isn't much of a surprise.
Jimmy Rollins - It's Melky Cabrera: Shortstop Edition. Yes we like Stults for his cost, but he allows a ton of balls into play. Rollins can take advantage with a .298 BABIP, which sits above the Philadelphia team average. Given Rollins' even more absurd 26 percent line drive rate (MLB average is at 22 percent), his .296 projected average and 0.62 projected runs scored tonight don't seem out of place in the least. Especially considering he's no higher than the third-most costly shortstop depending on format, I don't see going any other direction tonight.