MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 5/9/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
David Price - That 6.25 ERA and 1-3 record is ugly, ugly, ugly. Know what else is ugly? His .351 batting average allowed on balls in play (BAbip), way over his .281 career average and the .297 MLB average. Price's defense hasn't been helping him out a lot this season, leading to inflated run stats and more tough situations than is necessary. His high 4.2 percent homerun rate doesn't help out much, either. But we expect both of those numbers to regress to the mean and his consistent 21 percent K rate and six percent walk rate to shine once more.
Dillon Gee - Talk about hot and cold. Gee's earned runs allowed this season have gone 4-4-0-5-7-1. He's the Mario Party of pitchers - you don't know whether you're going to be left with a Gold Star or a bomb. Today, I'm going with the former: Pittsburgh's .305 OBP ranks No. 24 in the majors, and their 22.3 percent strikeout rate as a team is tied for fifth-highest in the league.
Ryan Vogelsong - Yet another pitcher whose inflated ERA has driven down his cost to bargain levels even though he hasn't pitched that badly. Chalk up a .355 BAbip and unreasonably high 5.0 percent homerun rate for Mr. Vogelsong, and you'll see a lot of the same issues that are plaguing Price this season. His 18.8 percent strikeout rate and his 7.5 percent walk rate are right in line with past seasons.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Mike Trout - It can't be fun to be Lucas Harrell. You allow almost as many walks as you get strikeouts, you've given up a larger percentage of homeruns this season than ever in the past, and you're prone to blow-up performances (8 ER each to the Tigers and A's this year). And now what do you get for your troubles? A date against the Angels and Mike Trout, who has 10 hits, 10 RBIs, and six runs scored in his past seven games played.
Jose Bautista - Call it a graduation. He was featured on our mid-range guys two days ago, but now even as his cost has risen following two straight days of two-hit games, he's still a viable Daily Fantasy option. Why is that? Just look at the rates - Bautista's 5.7 percent homerun rate is actually down from the past three years (meaning potential regression to the mean) but is still one of the best rates in the majors. And his 15.6 percent walk rate is up from 2012 (but still under 2011, so it's not a huge outlier), meaning he's getting on base often.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Jimmy Rollins - Maybe he's not completely useless? After going 2-4 with two doubles against the Giants yesterday, Rollins has now risen his OBP (.294) back to manageable levels. We'd still like to see him strike out less - his 18.2 percent SO rate is easily the highest of his career - but 23 percent of his balls he actually does hit into play being line drives is an encouraging sign. Arizona starter Patrick Corbin wouldn't scare me either, as his .274 BAbip is due to rise considering 25 percent of the balls in play he allows are line drives.
Brett Lawrie - He may be struggling a tiny bit right now (1-16 over his last four games), but we're all about looking at the long game here at numberFire. And over the longhaul, Lawrie has historically been a much better hitter than he's shown so far this season. His absurdly low .204 BAbip is .107 below last season, and his 27.0 percent SO rate is 11 percent higher. He's a prime candidate for regression to the mean; there's nothing in his history that suggests he'll continue playing this badly. That means it's an inefficiency to exploit for you.