MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 5/8/13

Matt Moore's 27.5 percent strikeout rate has him right on course to be our top pitching option tonight.

We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.

As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.

Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.

StarStreet Optimized Roster

PlayerPositionProjected FPCostValue
Jake PeavySP18.63$30,1000.62
David PhelpsSP16.94$20,0000.85
Michael CuddyerRF14.12$7,3001.93
Dexter FowlerCF13.96$6,9002.02
Paul Goldschmidt1B13.25$6,4002.07
Adrian Beltre3B12.48$6,2002.01
Josh HamiltonRF12.21$5,3002.30
Howie Kendrick2B11.91$4,7002.53
Jed LowrieSS10.65$4,7002.27
David MurphyLF10.55$3,9002.71
Miguel MonteroC10.05$4,5002.23

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The Three Top Pitchers

Matt Moore - I think Matt Moore has this pitching thing down pat. His 27.5 percent strikeout rate through six starts isn't a fluke in the least; he holds a 24.4 percent rate through 38 career starts dating back to 2011. And who is coming up now? Why, just the team with the fifth-most strikeouts in the league, the Toronto Blue Jays. Moore's 5.65 projected K's doesn't surprise me in the least, nor does his low 2.17 projected earned runs allowed (lowest of any late game starter today).

Clayton Kershaw - Talk about tough luck - it's not too often you see a pitcher with a 3-2 record and a 1.66 ERA. Those two losses have only served to keep his cost at a reasonable level, however, and it's worth taking advantage of. It's certainly not his pitching that has been down - his 0.904 walks and hits allowed per inning ranks fifth-best among qualified pitchers, and his 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings is right in line with his career average. The D'Backs don't scare me either, as their .318 OBP is exactly MLB average this season.

David Phelps - Do I feel a little bit sketchy recommending a pitcher that already has a 5.56 ERA at Coors Field? Sure. Do I look at Phelps' 23.8 percent career strikeout rate, 9.1 percent career walk rate, and insanely, unsustainably high .397 batting average on balls in play this season (meaning no defensive help) and still think that? Nope, I just let all the fears wash away and take my low-priced bargain where I can get it.

Top High-Priced Hitters

Dexter Fowler - But if somebody is going to get to Phelps, there's a solid chance it's going to be Dexter Fowler or teammate Michael Cuddyer. The two hold the two highest projected RBI totals at 1.04 (Fowler) and 1.02 (Cuddyer). Both hold at least 0.20 projected homeruns. And both are also among the top five in projected runs scored. Fowler may have 0.4 more projected strikeouts than Cuddyer, but the 0.18 projected steals and the across-the-board lower price is a nice touch.

Adrian Beltre - Usually, our optimized rosters go back and forth between Beltre and Chase Headley at third base. Today, it's Beltre: Brewers starter Kyle Lohse has allowed 77 percent of opposing plate appearances to put a ball into play this year, meaning plenty of opportunities for Beltre to make something happen. He also has allowed 24 percent of those balls in play to be hit for line drives, about four percent above the league average. That's one way to help Beltre's current .222 batting average on balls in play return to the mean of his .293 career average.

Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters

Josh Hamilton - Go big or go home - Hamilton's 0.23 projected homeruns tonight has him sixth in that category among all outfielders. Hamilton may only have two homeruns so far this season, but Houston starter Bud Norris is exactly the type of fireballer that can reverse that trend in a hurry. Norris has allowed 2.9 percent of opponents' plate appearances go for homers over his career. And even though that mark is down to 1.2 percent this year (and bound to regress to the mean), he still has allowed 10.0 hits and 3.9 walks per nine innings.

Paul Goldschmidt - Goldschmidt's name appears on this list quite a lot, doesn't it? But when the daily fantasy powers-that-be keep his price down after six hits in the past three games and hits in five of his past six contests, I guess I'm not going to argue too much for the free opportunity. Yeah, I know he's facing Kershaw and is 1-14 lifetime against the pitcher. But that's an extremely small sample size, and the Wilmington, Delaware-born Goldschmidt (Wilmington represent) has risen his game against lefties this year, batting .295 against lefty starters in 55 plate appearances.