MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 5/7/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Three Top Pitchers
Matt Harvey - We've been doing these Daily Fantasy projections for, oh, about three weeks now. I don't think I've seen a single starting pitcher with as few projected losses as Harvey's 0.17 today. But I guess that's what happens when you mix together a delicious stew of an opponent with the league's worst OBP (Chicago's .283), a shouldn't-be-legal strikeout rate (Harvey's 30.7 percent), and a supporting offense that isn't half bad (New York's eighth-best 4.89 runs/game).
James McDonald - McDonald doesn't allow many balls into play, but that's because he deals a large amount of strikeouts (7.6 per nine innings this season) as well as walks (6.1 per nine). But I suppose it's a good thing the Mariners strikeout a lot more than they walk, sitting with the fourth-most K's and only the 13th-most walks in the majors. His high .315 batting average against on balls in play has inflated his numbers as well, but his true average should be closer to his .298 career mark.
Josh Beckett - If I had told you before the season that on May 7, Josh Beckett would cost less than James McDonald or Matt Harvey, you would have laughed in my face. But that's what I guess an 0-4 record and 5.24 ERA do to a guy. But it's been an extraordinarily high 5.3 percent home run rate and 25 percent line drive rate allowed that has inflated those numbers, and those numbers will regress to the mean given time. The D'Backs may be a league-average offense, but Beckett's plummeting cost sets up a nice inefficiency to take advantage of.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Robinson Cano - You have to figure Cano, he of the six-game hitting streak, .376 OBP, and eight homeruns, is absolutely licking his chops about getting to play the next three games at Coors Field. He should also be excited about Jorge de la Rosa's struggling 14.3 percent strikeout rate and 3.0 percent homerun rate since returning from Tommy John surgery. De la Rosa has had some quality starts recently, but an unsustainable 29 percent double-play conversion rate is a major reason why.
Ryan Braun - Slumping? Where? Braun now has hits in each of his past eight games, with five of those games being multi-hit affairs. His .398 OBP is near the top of the charts as well. The only thing that has been missing is his power - he hasn't hit a homerun since April 26. Will that change tonight? It's hard to tell - Justin Grimm is an essential unknown, only having started six games in his major league career. We're going fully off of Braun's past production here, and it's a solid basis to start him in most platforms tonight.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt - If there's one player we like across the board today, it's Goldschmidt. Despite a middle-high cost, his projections have him as a high-end player: he's in our top seven projected batters in every single fantasy scoring type we cover. Josh Beckett's homer rate and line drive rate are due to regress to the mean as we've already explained, but, I mean, even a homerun rate and line drive rate a little bit lower is worth exploiting. I have no qualms about getting both for the price and hoping for the best.
Wilin Rosario - Catchers usually don't provide much for the price, but Rosario is a rare exception - he's our second-highest projected point-scorer at catcher behind Mike Napoli (who isn't even listed as a catcher in all formats). His seven homeruns and .327 OBP represents reasonable (read: non-outlier laden) growth that we think could continue. And while Hiroki Kuroda may hold a consistently strong strikeout and walk rate, his low 1.4 percent homerun rate is bound to increase as he is expected to ultimately pitch closer to the 2.8 percent rate he averaged the past two seasons.