MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 7/6/23: Will the Marlins Complete the Sweep?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Under 9.0 (+100)
Though short on name value, the pitching in one of baseball's best parks for a duel should be solid in Tampa tonight.
The visiting Phillies will turn to lefty Cristopher Sanchez, who has excelled in four starts thus far. Sanchez has amassed a 3.10 expected ERA (xERA) with a sporty 25.6% strikeout rate. As is always worth tracking with developing prospects, his hard-hit rate allowed (37.1%) has been fine, too.
Tampa Bay will lean on a bullpen game started by Shawn Armstrong (2.52 xERA), which was a harrowing prospect earlier in the season, but the Rays' bullpen has been better in the dog days of summer. Their 4.33 xFIP since June 1st is 17th in MLB.
The Rays have taken a gigantic step back against lefties from their absurd mark to begin the season (.619 OPS since June 1st), and I also don't believe a pedestrian Phillies offense (100 wRC+ overall) has the firepower to get to their bullpen in a manner that would blast past this elevated total, either.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Cardinals ML (+106)
You could ostensibly have scheduled losses for the Cardinals with Adam Wainwright and Steven Matz starting this series in Miami, but Jack Flaherty gives them a chance to avoid the sweep.
Flaherty's 4.72 xERA doesn't leap off the page, but he's a reliable arm with such a lofty rate of groundballs (47.1%) while sitting in the 72nd percentile in hard-contact rate allowed across MLB this year. His largest bugaboo has been a 12.1% walk rate, but the Marlins walk just 7.6% of the time against righties (tied for fifth-worst in baseball).
Hard contact might be the gap today if St. Louis pulls this upset. Eury Perez, Miami's outstanding fireballer prospect, has struggled with that, allowing a 42.7% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 23rd percentile. Perez's 28.0% strikeout rate is phenomenal, but the Redbirds (21.2% strikeout rate) are one of baseball's hardest teams to fan as an orthodox hurler.
The public is understandably loading up on the Fish given a +15 run differential this series, but today is a new day.
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox ML (+118)
The surprise of the 2023 MLB season might be the Boston Red Sox's pitching staff.
In addition to James Paxton and Brayan Bello, they've got another surprise arm on the bump tonight -- Kutter Crawford. Crawford has performed well with a 3.54 xERA and 23.7% strikeout rate in 16 appearances, holding a 5.3% walk rate that ranks in the 91st percentile across baseball. His hard-hit rate allowed (35.6%) is excellent, too.
Therefore, don't count him out in a duel with Texas' Nathan Eovaldi. Named a 2023 All-Star, Eovaldi (3.27 xERA) is the well-known commodity here, but he's actually got a wart that Crawford doesn't. Eovaldi's 42.7% hard-hit rate allowed is sizable and fairly concerning at one of baseball's best parks for hitting.
I see this matchup as closer to a coin flip when, in many respects, Crawford and Eovaldi are similar, and these are two top-12 offenses (in terms of wRC+) versus righties this season. I'll take the extra value with the Red Sox at home.
