3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/3/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Carlos Correa To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Minnesota Twins have a high 5.34 implied run total tonight and are in a spot to pile up the runs quickly.
Right from the jump, we see that this game offers awesome hitting weather with a bit of wind blowing out to left field. We always love to see that when we are targeting a hitting prop, and it should help with offensive production tonight.
Austin Cox will be on the mound for the Kansas City Royals, a young pitcher with only 16.0 innings pitched in the MLB this season. His sample size is very small, but frankly, it's nothing too impressive. He comes in with a 5.08 xFIP, 0.90 HR/9, 21.1% strikeout rate, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 54.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
The homers are rather low considering the number of fly balls he is giving up, and seeing that he allowed 2.34 HR/9 overall in Triple-A this season, I'm expecting more of them to start going over the fence.
We turn to Carlos Correa, who comes in with an 84 wRC+, .143 ISO, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. All of those numbers are lower than what Correa posted last season and has posted throughout his entire career.
He's due for a bump in production, and this is a soft matchup to get the ball rolling. I'm adding Correa To Record an RBI (+120).
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)
The Seattle Mariners are a high-strikeout team, and we can always look to target them with an opposing pitcher.
To be specific, the Mariners have a 25.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst in the league. They are a free-swinging team that is undisciplined at the plate, making them a key team to target for strikeout props.
Tonight, that leads us to Logan Webb, who comes in with a 24.0% strikeout rate, 9.2% swinging-strike rate, and 29.9% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. This has led to Webb hitting the over on this prop in 5 of his last 10 starts, but this favorable matchup should help push Webb to the over tonight.
Austin Riley To Record an RBI (+120)
The Atlanta Braves have a 4.82 implied run total tonight, and that might not be high enough.
Given what we've seen from the Braves' offense this season, it wouldn't surprise me to see them cross that implied run total before the second inning is over. They have power up and down their lineup, putting them in a spot to pile up the runs quickly.
They are one of my favorite offenses to target for player props regardless of who they are facing. Tonight, they will be up against rookie Gavin Williams of the Cleveland Guardians. Williams made his MLB debut less than two weeks ago and has a total of 12.2 innings pitched in the MLB.
Williams has looked decent in his first two starts, but they were against the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals -- two offenses that aren't in the same stratosphere as the Braves. Simply put, I'm siding with an elite offense ahead of an unproven pitcher.
This has me going to Austin Riley, who comes in with a 106 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .160 ISO, .324 BABIP, 37.1% hard-contact rate, and 34.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
He's going to be in the heart of the Braves lineup and in a spot to drive in some runs.
