MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 6/21/23: Backing an All-Star Underdog in Cleveland
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians
Athletics +1.5 (-130)
Athletics ML (+154)
You're projecting a lot from Gavin Williams to lay the wood with the Guardians today.
The former first-round pick will make his MLB debut, and I'll fully admit there's a chance he's special. He amassed to a 3.95 xFIP and 33.8% strikeout rate with Triple-A Columbus, and the direct next step above the International League is probably John Fisher's cost-efficient Oakland Athletics.
However, Oakland counters with its best pitcher, Paul Blackburn, for Williams' debut. Blackburn, a 2022 All-Star, has picked right up where he left off with a 3.16 expected ERA (xERA) at the major-league level this year. He's allowed just a 29.5% hard-hit rate this season, too.
Both of these offenses are abysmal against righties, holding an identically weak 86 wRC+ in this split this season. The short runline and plus-money moneyline for the more experienced pitcher seems like a steal; Williams wouldn't be the first high-caliber prospect to struggle in his debut. It's different at this level.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
White Sox ML (-110)
I would not want to be holding the Rangers' side of this pick 'em with Martin Perez on the bump.
Perez has taken a considerable step back from his 2.89 ERA last year. Not only is his 4.54 ERA worse, but a 5.03 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) shows he has probably deserved worse. Perez's hard-hit rate allowed (38.4%) is over four percentage points higher than last year, too.
The White Sox will square him up with Michael Kopech, and the righty that struggled most of 2022's second half is starting to return to his original MLB form. Kopech's 4.34 SIERA is better with a much higher strikeout rate (26.7%), leaving less to chance than Texas' lefty.
There is definitely some volatility as this game heads to the bullpen, but even there, Chicago (4.34 reliever xFIP) has been a step ahead of Texas (4.42). I wrote yesterday about the performance relative to expectations for these clubs; it might take another step in the opposite direction with a second straight dub for the Pale Hose.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Over 8.5 (-120)
Personally, Shohei Ohtani's sensational run leading the Angels in every statistical category has masked some of his flaws as a hurler this season.
Granted, there hasn't been a ton of them. Shohei has a 3.59 SIERA and is still striking out 31.7% of the hitters he faces. However, he's had a clear weakness in 2023 -- control. Ohtani is allowing a 10.6% walk rate that's been badly bitten when ceding 1.21 HR/9.
As always, it'll take a dominant effort to stop the Dodgers' offense. L.A.'s .750 OPS against righties is the fifth-best in baseball traveling to one of MLB's best hitter's parks. If the Dodgers plate a few, this over is in great shape given their own pitching situation.
It's looking like it'll be Michael Grove off the injured list, and that's not great news for the Dodgers. Grove's 5.34 xERA has been trashed by allowing 2.40 HR/9 to this point, and he'll be tasked with dealing with Ohtani -- and the rest of the Halos' potent offense -- at the plate.
Last night's "Freeway Series" opener featured just two runs. The floodgates could open tonight if Ohtani isn't at the peak of his powers.
