3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Friday 6/16/23
Stacking is an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. Correlation drives upside, giving your lineups a slate-winning ceiling when your stacks explode.
This piece will do the digging and the dirty work each day to determine which stacks are worth rostering on FanDuel's main slate. While we want upside, we also need to factor in game theory, especially in a sport as random as baseball.
Our MLB DFS heat map is a quick way to get a feel for the overall slate and which offenses are in a good spot. You can also check out our daily fantasy baseball projections to identify the slate's best bats.
Let's look at the top stacks for this main slate.
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves had Thursday's highest implied total and delivered with eight runs. Fast forward to today, and Atlanta once again boasts the slate's highest implied total, carrying a 6.29 mark into their home clash with Dinelson Lamet. The Braves' implied total is more than a run better than anyone else's. On a large 14-game main slate, Atlanta is going to be the most popular stack.
At one time, Lamet looked like a promising youngster with big-time strikeout ability. He's no longer that guy and is showing a 4.98 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate through 21 2/3 innings this season. He's giving up way too many walks (14.9% walk rate) and way too much hard contact (40.0% hard-hit rate).
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,600) is the best hitter in baseball right now. He's got a comically good .464 expected wOBA (xwOBA), which paces all hitters, and his 44.2% hard-hit rate ranks fifth. Oh, and he's also second in steals (29). He has slate-winning upside every night, and our projections slot him as the slate's number-two bat.
There's a lot to like about Matt Olson ($3,800), as well. He'll have the platoon advantage against Lamet, a split in which Olson has recorded a huge .400 wOBA and 46.5% fly-ball rate. Olson has donged twice over his past five games and checks in as the slate's fourth-best hitter by our numbers.
Eddie Rosario ($2,700), Austin Riley ($3,000), Michael Harris II ($2,700), Ozzie Albies ($3,100) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,000) offer some cap relief. Rosario has been killing it lately, sporting a .392 wOBA and 45.7% fly-ball rate in June. He'll likely hit fifth or sixth in the lineup.
Miami Marlins
It's not often we can feel good about stacking the Miami Marlins, but today is one of those rare times. As an added bonus, Miami has only one batter above $2,900 in salary, which is awfully handy on a night when we have six pitchers with five-digit salaries, including Joe Ryan ($11,400) versus the Detroit Tigers.
The Marlins are taking on Trevor Williams. A righty, Williams has struggled to a 4.78 SIERA and 18.2% strikeout rate in 2023. He's giving up a 43.3% fly-ball rate, which has led to 1.78 homers per nine. He's just not very good, and as a result, Miami owns a 4.78 implied total.
Miami's lone high-salary bat is Jorge Soler ($3,500). The hard-swinging righty has 20 taters with a juicy batted ball profile -- 41.4% hard-hit rate and 47.9% fly-ball rate. His xwOBA is up at .391. Given those numbers, $3,500 seems like a good deal for Soler.
Jesus Sanchez ($2,700) is one of my favorite plays of this slate as he offers good pop at a modest salary. He'll have the platoon advantage against Williams, and he's got a .378 xwOBA this season. Our model rates him as the night's best point-per-dollar hitter.
Luis Arraez ($2,900), Bryan De La Cruz ($2,900), Joey Wendle ($2,400) and Garrett Cooper ($2,600) make sense, too. Wendle has historically been pretty good against righties, and he's projected to hit sixth.
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels are showing the night's second-best implied total (5.10) for their matchup with Brady Singer.
Singer was pretty darn good last year (3.40 SIERA), but his numbers have taken a step back across the board in 2023. Through 64 1/3 frames, Singer owns a 4.56 SIERA and 20.3% strikeout rate with a lowly 8.4% swinging-strike rate. Not only is he not missing many bats, he's not missing many barrels, surrendering a 43.4% hard-hit rate. Lefties, in particular, have mauled him, racking up a .400 wOBA, 50.0% hard-hit rate and 42.7% fly-ball rate.
The Halos have a left-handed hitter you may have heard of -- his name is Shohei Ohtani ($4,300). Our model has Ohtani as the night's top-ranked stick, projecting him for 16.3 FanDuel points. Versus righties in 2023, he's got a .428 wOBA and 42.2% fly-ball rate.
The rest of the Angels' lineup will likely be pretty heavy on righties outside of Matt Thaiss ($2,500) and Jared Walsh ($2,300), both of whom are plenty viable as value targets. Mickey Moniak ($2,900) homered last night and might get another start today with a righty on the bump.
Of course, in no way do we need to be shying away from LA's right-handed bats. Mike Trout ($3,700) is sporting a .353 wOBA, which is kind of meh by his lofty standards, but his .384 xwOBA paints a better picture. Taylor Ward ($2,900) is forecasted to be atop the order while Hunter Renfroe ($2,800) and Brandon Drury ($3,900) pack good pop.
Other top options: Boston Red Sox (vs. Domingo German), Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. John Brebbia), Philadelphia Phillies (at JP Sears)
