3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/15/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+520)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a ton of hitters with power upside, but I have my eyes on Freddie Freeman tonight.
This is not only a great matchup for Freeman, but his +520 odds are awesome and just a touch longer than we normally see for him. The Dodgers have a 4.59 implied run total tonight and are set to take on Dylan Cease.
By all accounts, Cease is a solid pitcher and can certainly strike out plenty of hitters, but he also struggles with the long ball. To this point in the season, Cease has allowed 1.47 HR/9, .336 wOBA, .444 SLG, 4.84 xFIP, 38.5% fly-ball rate, and 13.3% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. That certainly makes him worth attacking with a hitter such as Freeman.
Speaking of Freeman, he comes in with a 151 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .169 ISO, 36.8% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. The Dodgers' lineup is loaded with power and could plate runs easily tonight, so I'm adding Freeman To Record an RBI (+160).
Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
For a strikeout prop, let's look at over 6.5 strikeouts for Sonny Gray.
Gray is as solid as they come in terms of pitchers and has a favorable matchup against the Detroit Tigers, putting him in a great spot to pile up the strikeouts. Gray is rocking with a 25.2% strikeout rate, 3.57 xFIP, 11.3% swinging-strike rate, and 29.3% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate.
As mentioned, the Tigers are a favorable matchup since they come in with a 24.4% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers, which is the sixth-worst in the league. This is a straightforward matchup for Gray, who shouldn't have too much of an issue with a free-swinging Detroit lineup.
Sean Murphy To Record an RBI (+120)
The Atlanta Braves lead the slate with a 5.37 implied run total, and they're always a good offense to get exposure to.
The Braves' lineup can put up runs early and often, making them an ideal team to target for player props. Tonight, they are taking on Kyle Freeland, a lefty pitcher who could be in for a rough outing considering the number of righties the Braves normally have in their lineup.
Freeland comes in allowing a .331 wOBA, .473 SLG, 4.96 xFIP, 1.68 HR/9, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 39.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. With the potential for seven righties in the Braves' lineup tonight, this is essentially a nightmare-enducing spot for Freeland.
We turn to Sean Murphy, who is crushing lefties this season with a 163 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .265 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 44.7% hard-contact rate. It's a dreamy spot for Murphy, who will have plenty of chances to drive in some runners tonight.
