MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 6/13/23: The Right Pitcher Is Favored in Minnesota

Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox

Over 9.5 (-112)

James Paxton's sensational effort was just a bit too much to overcome to hit this bet yesterday despite the Rockies having the ducks on the pond late. It's a much better day to go back.

Instead of Paxton, the Red Sox will toss out Kutter Crawford to start a bullpen game. Boston's bullpen has the ninth-worst xFIP in MLB (4.19), and we'll see plenty of them. Crawford hasn't eclipsed 60 pitches since April 17th. Even Colorado's injured-plagued offense should have some success in one of baseball's best hitter's parks.

The Rockies will try to match that ineptitude with Chase Anderson, whose 2.15 ERA has come with a great deal of good fortune. His 4.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), low 15.3% strikeout rate, and 1.41 HR/9 allowed all indicate worse days are coming, and Boston's .751 OPS against right-handed pitching shows they're capable of delivering one.

Colorado's bullpen (4.51 xFIP) has been even worse than Boston's, so this should be a good spot for offense despite these clubs coming up just short yesterday.

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins

Twins ML (-118)

This pitching duel in Minnesota has the right team favored.

The Brewers should struggle to hit Twins right-hander Pablo Lopez. Lopez's 4.25 ERA is a tad unlucky when he's sporting a 3.47 SIERA with an excellent 28.6% strikeout rate. Not only does Milwaukee strike out a ton in this split (24.2% of the time), but their 92 wRC+ shows overall ineptitude.

Set to face a comparable test, Minnesota's 102 wRC+ is considerably better. In fact, Corbin Burnes' 4.21 SIERA is a bit higher, and he's not had nearly the same swing-and-miss upside (23.7% strikeout rate) to start 2023.

Plus, as we get into the bullpens, the Twins' core of relievers (4.07 xFIP) has considerably outperformed Milwaukee's (4.49). A majority of bettors will likely flock to Burnes -- and his lower ERA -- as a small underdog, but I'd rather lay a tiny bit of juice with the better offense and a worthy adversary.

Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals

Royals ML (-108)

The Royals are 0-13 in Jordan Lyles' starts this season, but they're in a pick 'em with one of baseball's hottest teams? Sure thing.

I won't shy away from Lyles' horrid profile. His 6.84 ERA is a bit unlucky given a 5.19 SIERA, but that's still no mark to write home about, and he's been a batting-practice machine given a 52.6% flyball rate allowed that's culminated in 2.20 HR/9.

As you'd expect, Cincinnati is getting plenty of activity as a public favorite to pound Lyles, but they've got their own issues on the mound to rectify. Brandon Williamson's 5.37 SIERA is actually worse, and he's giving up his fair share of flyballs (48.9% rate allowed) and homers (2.03 HR/9).

This ends up looking like a pretty tight matchup, but Kansas City's bullpen (4.39 xFIP) could be a minor advantage over Cincinnati's (4.48) as we get into the stretch late.

I wouldn't blame anyone for choosing to steer clear of Lyles, but this is a contrarian spot to fade the public that I can't pass up.