FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/13/23

We have 14 games on tonight's slate, and yet just four pitchers have salaries of $10,000 or higher, so we should be able to spend a little less at the position tonight. It's worth noting that the forecast isn't looking so great in Chicago, so it's possible the Pirates-Cubs game gets washed out.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Pablo Lopez ($9,800) has had up-and-down results lately, but his overall numbers remain strong, and tonight's matchup against the Brewers places him at or near the top of a hefty slate.

Across 13 starts, Lopez is showing a 3.47 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate, and while a dip in ground-ball rate this season has led to his fly-ball rate rising to 41.1%, resulting in occasional home run issues (1.26 per 9 innings), it's hard to complain about his overall profile. If the season ended today, this would be the best strikeout rate of the righty's career, and it's backed by a 14.4% swinging-strike rate.

This is largely a plus matchup against Milwaukee, whose active roster comes in with a 98 wRC+ and 23.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. The Brewers' projected lineup has just three lefty bats in it, too, which could further boost Lopez's prospects because his K rate bumps up to 32.8% in same-sided matchups.

Perhaps the best candidate to dethrone Lopez from the top spot is Max Scherzer ($9,400), who looks to be back in peak form following a sluggish start to the year. Over his last five outings, he's posted a 2.98 xFIP, 31.1% strikeout rate, and 3.3% walk rate, and he's logged 8 or more punchouts in each of his last three.

Scherzer is facing the Yankees, which is typically a daunting matchup, but this New York lineup is much easier to tackle sans Aaron Judge. While the Bronx Bombers still possess some power without Judge and the wind is blowing out at Citi Field tonight, their active roster combines for just a 90 wRC+ versus right-handers. The Yankees' 3.40 implied team total also backs the notion that Scherzer should be able to take care of business.

Another possibility is Hunter Brown ($10,000), who may very well be facing the weakest opposing lineup on the board. The Nationals' active roster owns a paltry 84 wRC+ against righties, and that comes alongside poor marks in ISO (.124) and walk rate (6.3%).

However, the one thing that holds Brown back from being the clear-cut best play of the slate is that Washington also doesn't swing and miss often, as they also have just a 19.3% strikeout rate in the split.

Between Brown's own 28.1% strikeout rate and an excellent 54.9% ground-ball rate, he should be able to generate his share of fantasy points, but he might need to blank the Nats and go seven or so innings to have a shot at cracking the optimal lineup. Washington has the night's second-lowest implied team total (3.36).

George Kirby ($10,800), Zack Wheeler ($10,600), and Corbin Burnes ($10,200) are the other three guys with five-figure salaries. While Kirby and Wheeler are quality pitchers who could certainly make some noise tonight, they both have low-strikeout matchups, so I'm more inclined to take the savings of our previous three options.

On the other hand, Burnes is facing a Twins active roster that has a head-turning 28.1% strikeout rate versus righties and is missing their best hitter, Byron Buxton. That will get our attention.

While Burnes' season-long metrics remain pretty average, he's been looking more like his old self as we get deeper into this campaign. Over his last six starts, he's logged at least seven Ks five times while amassing a 3.94 xFIP, 27.9% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate. That may not be the elite Burnes of years past, but it's a step in the right direction.

He's also coming off his best start of the year, going eight scoreless frames against the Orioles while racking up season-bests in strikeouts (9) and FanDuel points (61). It might be time to buy back into Burnes, and given all the other options, he might not see a high roster percentage, too.

Among the arms in the value range, Edward Cabrera ($8,800) and Jack Flaherty ($8,300) are arguably our best bets to rack up some punchouts -- but they're salaried this low for a reason.

Cabrera boasts a 29.4% strikeout rate and 53.3% ground-ball rate but is held back by a 14.0% walk rate. He's produced double-digit strikeouts twice, though, and that's in the range of outcomes against a whiff-happy Mariners team.

Flaherty's numbers don't jump off the page, and he's also been all over the place with a 13.2% walk rate. But he has a respectable 23.8% strikeout rate and has logged 100-plus pitches in five straight starts, and in that recent sample, he's popped for 61 and 46 FanDuel points. He's capable of getting us where we want to be every now and then. This is a difficult matchup versus the Giants, but they're another team that tends to strike out a lot.

Hitting Breakdown

The Boston Red Sox failed to take advantage of a pristine matchup last night, but we should have confidence in their ability to bounce back tonight versus Chase Anderson.

Anderson's 2.25 ERA defies logic at this point, particularly when he's now made four of his five starts at Coors Field. Underneath that ERA lies a 4.85 SIERA and 15.3% strikeout rate, and between absurd marks in both BABIP (.220) and strand rate (96.3%), regression should smack Anderson in the face very, very soon.

Additionally, the 35-year-old is still giving up dingers (1.41 home runs per 9 innings), and we should expect to continue given that he has a 38.2% ground-ball rate and a career average of 1.43 dingers per 9 innings. While he hasn't allowed a ton of hard contact, I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt because most of his starts have come against lower-tier offenses.

The right-hander is showing poor marks against both lefties and righties, though he has just a 12.9% strikeout rate in same-sided matchups and has often shown reverse splits over his career. While it's the lefties who tend to stand out for the Sox, this split should push us toward Adam Duvall ($2,900) if he starts, and Justin Turner ($2,900) continues to bat in the heart of the order.

Of the lefties, Rafael Devers ($3,700) is a shoo-in, and then Masataka Yoshida ($3,600), Alex Verdugo ($3,200), Jarren Duran ($2,900), and Triston Casas ($2,500) are other notable names we could see. The plethora of value salaries gives us loads of flexibility in this spot, as well.

The Tampa Bay Rays were also pretty quiet at the plate on Monday, but they will also have a great opportunity to put up some crooked numbers against left-hander Hogan Harris and Oakland's bullpen.

Over 15 1/3 innings, Harris hasn't exactly looked the part of a pitcher who belongs in the big leagues, posting a 5.24 SIERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 14.1% walk rate. It wasn't like he was tearing it up in Triple-A, either, showing a 6.50 xFIP over eight starts this year and a 5.01 xFIP in eight starts last season.

Randy Arozarena ($3,900), Wander Franco ($3,900), and Yandy Diaz ($3,800) all come in at premium salaries, but Jose Siri ($3,500), Isaac Paredes ($3,200), and Christian Bethancourt ($2,700) have flexed plenty of power, too, giving us plenty of options with the platoon advantage. Harold Ramirez ($3,100) is a pinch-hit risk, but he's likely to bat third against the lefty, so he's still in a prime position to come through.

While Lance Lynn has better underlying numbers than his bloated 6.72 ERA would suggest, his struggles against left-handed batters could be his undoing against an elite offense like the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that split, Lynn's showing a 20.6% strikeout rate and 33.0% ground-ball rate and is getting walloped for 3.48 home runs per 9 innings.

Freddie Freeman ($4,500) and Max Muncy ($3,700) are the obvious guys to look to first, and then David Peralta ($2,400) and Jason Heyward ($2,600) are potential value plays. Lynn is much tougher on righties with a 27.6% strikeout rate, but Mookie Betts ($4,200) and Will Smith ($3,800) are patient hitters who don't swing and miss very often.

The Houston Astros are another top option, and then the Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds are two others to have on your radar that might not draw as much attention. The Astros are facing lefty Patrick Corbin, who has a strikeout rate below 15% against both sides of the plate and is allowing 1.69 home runs per 9 innings to right-handed bats.

Brandon Williamson has a 5.37 SIERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 11.0% walk rate, and 33.7% ground-ball rate over five starts, and even a team like the Royals can do damage against those numbers. Jordan Lyles is coughing up 2.20 home runs per 9 innings this season, so the Reds are intriguing on the other side of that Kansas City game.