FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 5/9/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top-Tier Options
Logan Webb, Giants ($10,500)
The San Francisco Giants will have Logan Webb on the mound, a pitcher you can trust in all fantasy formats tonight. Webb will be facing the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 3.43 implied run total, which is good for the third-lowest on the slate.
Webb is super solid across the board this season with a 27.0% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate, 2.98 xFIP, 57.9% ground-ball rate, 48.4% medium-contact rate, 10.7% swinging-strike rate, and 31.1% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). You can't really say too many bad things about him except for the 1.60 HR/9 allowed, but he's at home in San Francisco, which is one of the best pitcher's parks in the league.
The Nationals don't have a ton of power in their lineup and realistically don't present too much of a threat to Webb tonight. This season, they come in with a 77 wRC+ (29th), .288 wOBA (27th), .096 ISO (30th), 30.5% fly-ball rate (30th), and 29.5% hard-contact rate (23rd). They are legitimately one of the worst offenses in the league and shouldn't be an issue for Webb tonight.
George Kirby, Mariners ($9,900)
Next up, let's take a look at George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners.
Kirby doesn't have numbers that jump off the page but he's putting up good fantasy points every time out and has a great pitcher's park at his back tonight in Seattle.
He comes in with a 17.6% strikeout rate, 2.0% walk rate, 0.48 HR/9, 42.7% ground-ball rate, 53.0% medium-contact rate, 4.09 xFIP, and 8.8% swinging-strike rate. The walk rate being that low is phenomenal, along with a great ground-ball rate and very few home runs allowed. Could the strikeout rate be better? Yes. I'm hopeful he can push toward the 24.5% strikeout rate he posted last season.
He's up against the Texas Rangers, who have some noticeable splits when they aren't at home this season. They come in with a 95 wRC+ (19th), .136 ISO (19th), and 24.3% strikeout rate (9th) versus right-handed pitchers while on the road. Compare that to their home numbers of 136 wRC+ (3rd), .228 ISO (3rd), and 21.8% strikeout rate (20th) versus right-handers.
They're elite while at home and... kinda bad while on the road. This is the time to roster a pitcher against them.
Tournament Option
Andrew Heaney, Rangers ($8,100)
If you like to roll the dice, Andrew Heaney could be the option for you.
Heaney is essentially the ultimate boom-or-bust type of pitcher. He has a 24.4% strikeout rate but also allows 2.15 HR/9 with a 46.2% fly-ball rate. Heaney has been known to pump that strikeout rate even higher, as we saw last season with it being up at 35.5%. It's a total mixed bag for Heaney and rostering him is not for the faint of heart.
The reason he is so appealing tonight is the matchup against the Mariners shouldn't present to be too difficult. While at home versus left-handed pitchers this season, the Mariners come in with a 93 wRC+ (25th), .168 ISO (17th), 26.0% strikeout rate (5th), and 37.3% fly-ball rate (17th).
If there's any matchup for Heaney to show off that strikeout rate against a team that isn't disciplined at the plate, this might be it.
Low-Salaried Option
Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks ($5,800)
Brandon Pfaadt is looking like the clear low-salary option for tonight's slate if you are looking to pay up for hitters.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will have Pfaadt on the mound tonight, who will be making his second career start in the MLB. Pfaadt is a top-100 prospect for the Diamondbacks and has a favorable matchup against the Miami Marlins to show what he's capable of.
His first start last week wasn't a great first impression, but we don't want to overreact to 4.2 innings pitched. He had a very solid 28.6% and 30.6% strikeout rate in the minors between this year and last, along with a 5.7% and 5.8% walk rate.
When it comes to the Marlins, they come in with a 78 wRC+ (27th), .122 ISO (27th), 24.4% strikeout rate (8th), and 31.6% fly-ball rate (29th). There's not a lot of danger in this lineup, and it gives Pfaadt a chance to bounce back in a big way tonight.
He's got clear upside, has a very low salary, and has an easy matchup. Pfaadt is the chalky salary saver tonight.
