MLB Betting Guide for Monday 5/1/23: Will the Blue Jays Start the Month With a Road Win?

Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Blue Jays -1.5 (+104)

On paper, the Blue Jays and Red Sox appear to be in for a shootout, but one team could really disappoint.

There's plenty of money on this over, but I wouldn't be surprised if Boston underwhelms. Though holding a 4.71 ERA, Jose Berrios has deserved better. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) sits at 3.41, and Toronto fans should be thrilled that his swing-and-miss stuff (13.1% swinging-strike rate) has returned.

Boston's Corey Kluber can't quite relate. Though his 6.75 ERA is a bit unfair given a 5.03 SIERA, that mark still isn't good. Plus, Kluber's disastrous combination of a low strikeout rate (18.9%) and hefty fly-ball rate (52.3%) is a disaster in his home ballpark.

Plus, as we get into the bullpens, Toronto has a sizable advantage. Their xFIP (3.75) is significantly better than Boston's (4.62).

These are two stellar offenses against righties, but the Jays' pitching could carry them today.

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres

Reds +1.5 (-110)
Reds ML (+190)

Luke Weaver's interesting pitching profile makes this game a bit of a wild card. I think that puts value behind the Reds here.

Weaver has a 3.46 SIERA, which is largely propelled by a 15.1% swinging-strike rate. In two starts exceeding 90 pitches, that's not a tiny sample of swing-and-miss stuff against good offenses (Texas and Pittsburgh). However, it's also come with a disastrous 63.3% hard-hit rate, ceding 3.86 HR/9 thus far.

I want to buy that against the Padres, who, holding a 98 wRC+ and 26.0% strikeout rate, are easily the worst offense against righties that he's faced thus far.

Of course, the problem is Cincinnati's offense (.694 OPS against lefties), but they could have some success against Blake Snell. Snell's 16.5% walk rate is its usual awful mark, and his strikeout rate (23.9%) is down significantly at the start of 2023. It's all culminated in an ugly 5.42 SIERA.

Plus, like Toronto, the Reds' bullpen (4.08 xFIP) has outperformed San Diego's (4.40) to this point. At these long odds, it's worth a flier Cincinnati has the pitching advantage tonight.