MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 4/25/23: Can the Redbirds Right the Ship?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies
Under 8.0 (-102)
There is one reason apiece to believe both of these offenses scuffle tonight.
The Phillies' bats might struggle to bust out because they're facing Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert. Gilbert's breakout 2022 campaign hasn't paused one bit in 2023; he's amassed a sparkling 2.93 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 31.1% strikeout rate, and his usually solid 48.3% rate of groundballs.
As for the Mariners' sticks, they've struggled to hit lefties all season. They've got the seventh-worst wRC+ in that split across the league (80), and that's come with the seventh-highest rate of punching out (26.2%). Bailey Falter (4.84 SIERA) is far from the most accomplished southpaw they've seen, but Falter's hard-hit rate allowed (33.3%) is pretty low for an offense in a poor split.
This slightly elevated run total seems slightly high, and sharp bettors agree. Despite receiving just 39% of betting tickets, this side has seen a whopping 76% of the total handle.
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Under 6.5 (-102)
With cool weather on tap, we should see a pitching duel in the Twin Cities.
Minnesota's Joe Ryan has appeared to take another step to start this season. Ryan's ERA (3.24) and SIERA (3.06) are nearly identical and equally impressive through four starts, and he's struck out 30.5% of the batters he's faced thus far. This Yankees lineup, though potent, will do that. They've got a 25.7% strikeout rate against righties, which is the sixth-highest mark in baseball.
On the other side, Nestor Cortes hasn't quite replicated his All-Star form from a year ago despite what his 3.09 ERA might state. Cortes' SIERA (4.22) and strikeout rate (22.7%) are well off his 2022 pace. Still, he should have a better night at the office tonight against a Twins lineup with just a .624 OPS versus lefties (fourth-worst in MLB).
This battle of aces has a low total for good reason, but the betting split appears to state the public is leaning toward the star power in these lineups. While 71% of tickets are on this over, 69% of the cash is backing the under. We'll follow the money.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Cardinals ML (-102)
This is a third side today where we're following sharp money, and I think it's a bet the Cardinals' offense doesn't stay down forever.
St. Louis has lost five of its past seven, but they'll have a golden opportunity to turn it around tonight. San Francisco is going with a bullpen game led by Jakob Junis, whose 4.17 SIERA and low 19.8% strikeout rate should play right into the Red Birds' hands. Their .739 OPS against righties is the 11th-best in MLB.
On the other side, it's presumed Jake Woodford is the worse of these two pitching situations, and his 4.88 SIERA would verify that. I'm just not sure how fair that is when his massive hard-hit rate allowed (60.3%) is also tied to a hefty rate of groundballs (52.9% rate).
The Giants have the 10th-worst hard-hit rate against righties (30.1%) despite their top-five OPS, so Woodford's ability to pound the strike zone and put balls on the ground might actually be a massive advantage in this particular matchup.
Because of these extreme betting splits, I'm tacking on a small dart at Cardinals -1.5 (+144). After all, money talks.
