3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 3/31/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Cleveland Guardians have an interesting matchup against Robbie Ray that presents some power upside.
Right from the jump, it has to be noted that Ray is a good pitcher for the Seattle Mariners, but he's not without his faults. While he posted a 26.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters last season, he also allowed 1.66 HR/9, a 42.3% fly-ball rate, and a 35.2% hard-contact rate. He can be a bit of boom or bust on the mound, and we're certainly hoping for the latter.
When it comes to Jose Ramirez, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the league and has a good combination of power and solid betting odds tonight. If we look back to last season, Ramirez had a .178 ISO, 52.2% fly-ball rate, and 32.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
JRam has to power to take any pitcher deep, and with some of the issues Ray has shown, this is worth a shot. As always, I like to add Ramirez to Post an RBI (+130).
Mookie Betts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
In non-breaking news, Mookie Betts is an awesome hitter.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a solid 4.27 implied run total tonight, and if they are going to be scoring games, that means they are getting players on base. Betts hits at the top of the lineup for the Dodgers and will have plenty of chances at the plate to get on base.
Last season, Betts posted a 133 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .250 ISO, 16.6% strikeout rate, 46.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Betts is elite across the board and should be able to put that on full display tonight against Merrill Kelly.
In 2022, Kelly had a very average 24.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters, a 3.28 xFIP, and a 35.7% fly-ball rate. Kelly is just a normal pitcher; there's no other way to put it. He isn't overpowering on the mound, and Betts is simply a better hitter than Kelly is a pitcher.
Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Finally, under 3.5 strikeouts for Kyle Freeland.
The San Diego Padres have a 4.27 implied run total tonight and shouldn't have an issue reaching that mark going up against Freeland tonight. When it's all said and done, Freeland just isn't a good pitcher. He's not necessarily a bad pitcher, either. He just doesn't strike out hitters. Last season, Freeland finished with a 17.1% strikeout rate, which was lower than the league average of 22.4%.
Last season, the Padres' current lineup had an 18.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which was the fourth-lowest in the league. They are very disciplined at the plate and won't be giving away free chances for Freeland to rack up strikeouts.